Commodities · resolved market
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53c672e37f3a7d286a275c85b52fe11bdc5d275f8bf626515d86113358c10d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,747 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 0c | 12,745$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,802$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…9c22backed Yes | 1c | 6,188$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…0d83backed Yes | 5c | 4,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…9548backed Yes | 4c | 3,690$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,483$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 25c | 3,142$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.95 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…3653backed Yes | 2c | 2,802$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,027$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…8845backed Yes | 26c | 1,959$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…79abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,874$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…0174backed Yes | 1c | 1,836$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce9…a3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,682$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47df…2778backed Yes | 1c | 1,668$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,426$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,308$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,260$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 1c | 1,254$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…b8fabacked Yes | 17c | 1,179$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 75c | 1,053$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.94 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 4c | 800.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 732.08$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…0667backed Yes | 6c | 721.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 634.21$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e81…6876backed Yes | 2c | 621.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 25c | 606.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 2c | 603$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 601.02$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.79 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 17c | 506.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked No | 74c | 503$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 72c | 501.69$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 26c | 501.26$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 464.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 425.68$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 413$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked Yes | 4c | 376.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 20c | 375.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 69c | 366.57$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed Yes | 36c | 350$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 327.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 320.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 20c | 280.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 29c | 271.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 30c | 260$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…7b61backed Yes | 20c | 249.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 245.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b07abacked Yes | 23c | 213.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 197.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 27c | 182.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…67b0backed Yes | 24c | 164.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +234.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 163.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…a89ebacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 148.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed No | 73c | 137.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 136$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…4d58backed Yes | 31c | 134$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…da72backed Yes | 23c | 132.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 126.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…9d32backed Yes | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…832cbacked Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 28c | 122.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 122$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…fabfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…291bbacked Yes | 30c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 114.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 108$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…1fa8backed Yes | 21c | 106$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 11c | 105.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 76c | 103.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…0413backed Yes | 21c | 102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6656…8433backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…955abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…6769backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…ed12backed Yes | 25c | 98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471e…379abacked Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…b835backed No | 67c | 83.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…19ecbacked Yes | 23c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 15c | 72.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 17c | 71.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…0cc9backed Yes | 31c | 70.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4334…e6f2backed Yes | 31c | 70.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f65…0e39backed Yes | 28c | 70.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…ce4abacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 28c | 68.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c3bebacked No | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 79c | 63.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc477…7c48backed Yes | 19c | 62.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 67c | 57.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…7191backed Yes | 19c | 57.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.