Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54e38e5dd8d631184d91b39c2b4b757fce025425d91f985b37b62ece2d6bdadd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,388 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 15c | 8,122$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.89 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Yes | 21c | 3,055$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 2,240$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,004$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,293$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 20c | 1,236$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed Yes | 18c | 1,136$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,122$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.68 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…a4b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,121$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 2c | 1,096$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 20c | 1,069$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f6…3075backed Yes | 22c | 999.59$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 6c | 984.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…fc43backed Yes | 9c | 940.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 8c | 876.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.66 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 21c | 786.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 21c | 741.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 611.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb63…9097backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 4c | 596.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 14c | 593.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…a7e3backed Yes | 18c | 586.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 20c | 584.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 11c | 570$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 21c | 569.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 549.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 15c | 540.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09f1…0667backed Yes | 4c | 460.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 79c | 441.3$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 15c | 436.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 415.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 413$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…f512backed Yes | 21c | 325.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaa…a1a1backed Yes | 25c | 314.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 18c | 310.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 4c | 261$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 258.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 6c | 242.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…6b9ebacked Yes | 9c | 228.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 12c | 211$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…c9edbacked Yes | 18c | 181.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 171.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 21c | 169.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 166.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17fc…caf4backed Yes | 18c | 163.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…5184backed Yes | 9c | 159.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…720abacked Yes | 20c | 152.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 21c | 140.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 21c | 140.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…fbc8backed Yes | 15c | 131.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…57bcbacked Yes | 15c | 130.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 15c | 106.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…c434backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…3055backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 21c | 97.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…cc9cbacked Yes | 15c | 96.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…e880backed Yes | 19c | 93.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…4ca9backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…40c6backed No | 80c | 86.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9c…56a9backed No | 79c | 81.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…1ddcbacked Yes | 18c | 80.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 21c | 78.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 17c | 59.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 31c | 59.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes | 20c | 58.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…006abacked Yes | 23c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 19c | 52.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…088fbacked Yes | 21c | 51.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ba…b6ddbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…df7fbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed No | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Yes won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.