TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2bd6…60c2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT3240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$230
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.75
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12,195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+121.5%+$14,811.21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15,172Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+240.2%+$36,443.8
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$550
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$313.88
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,616Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+509.8%+$8,240.23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$5,815Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+312.7%+$18,185
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,848Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+247%+$4,566.37
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+252.1%+$776.33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,530Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+283%+$4,328.41
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$133.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$7,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,912.37
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,406Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$594
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$4,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,209.68
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$677Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$677.22
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,538Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,537.88
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$281Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$281.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,440Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$559.99
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.5
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$373
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000.79
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$438Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$438.37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,110
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,292Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,292.5
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,400
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$560
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$6,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,027.77
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,279.99
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$6,822Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,821.77
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$601.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$994Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$994.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.19
Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$704Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+42%+$296
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$688.14
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$426.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$8,264.57
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.