AI · resolved market
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20923dc0347ba0d72fef151d71911780b54eb15efc8499692f494e1e36a279ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $594,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $591,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x832c…2d3ebacked Yes | 39c | 78,400$30,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,576 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…6f09backed Yes | 27c | 65,672$17,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,731.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…0ef6backed No | 61c | 26,500$16,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,335 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…5123backed No | 61c | 26,000$15,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa818…0de9backed No | 61c | 25,900$15,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,101 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…2251backed No | 73c | 24,613$17,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,645.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2881…655ebacked No | 73c | 21,882$15,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,908.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b28…b31fbacked No | 73c | 19,476$14,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,258.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 13,948$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.57 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…b920backed Yes | 42c | 7,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,940 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…d1e5backed Yes | 42c | 5,792$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 5,504$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.03 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 27c | 5,119$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaaff…de3bbacked No | 58c | 4,701$2,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 75c | 4,655$3,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.9 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…b9c9backed No | 58c | 4,423$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 3,835$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.17 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5218…08a4backed No | 58c | 3,668$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,993$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.86 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,892$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 2,749$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 69c | 2,229$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 25c | 2,219$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.57 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 74c | 2,004$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.67 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 33c | 1,788$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,707$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,505$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 64c | 1,486$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 33c | 1,446$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 1,362$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.35 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 70c | 1,346$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 66c | 1,300$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.97 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed No | 76c | 1,246$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 61c | 1,235$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.02 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 67c | 1,207$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 32c | 1,201$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fb…6516backed Yes | 4c | 1,193$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed Yes | 29c | 1,162$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 24c | 1,100$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 44c | 1,097$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 53c | 1,097$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 72c | 1,089$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.92 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 67c | 1,086$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 34c | 1,076$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 67c | 1,055$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Yes | 26c | 1,001$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 25c | 989$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 54c | 986$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 33c | 981$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 67c | 980$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 75c | 947$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 32c | 947$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 69c | 940.13$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.13 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 63c | 929$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed Yes | 28c | 929$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.12 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 76c | 926.06$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.1 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 44c | 924$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 34c | 922$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 34c | 916$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed Yes | 28c | 903$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 75c | 890$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 32c | 889$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 67c | 880$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.9 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 56c | 871$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.06 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 33c | 863$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.79 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed Yes | 34c | 861$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 32c | 855$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 33c | 853$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 56c | 850$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 67c | 844$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 33c | 828$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 56c | 827$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 67c | 825$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 25c | 824$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 37c | 799$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 47c | 793$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 68c | 778$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +109%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 34c | 773$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f5…8e1ebacked No | 63c | 769$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 766.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 67c | 761.96$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.07 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 68c | 760$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 43c | 752$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 33c | 746$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 39c | 740$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 733.68$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.26 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 53c | 731$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed No | 66c | 731$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 44c | 723$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 68c | 723$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 38c | 721$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 32c | 719$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 67c | 715$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 67c | 709$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 69c | 703$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 46c | 698$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 66c | 696$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed Yes | 46c | 691$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Yes won
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.