AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x968f57ef03b279de33218a60ccaafac50588466751dc5407a75b50bbce5b2e77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $259,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 13,162$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.54 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 11c | 10,736$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.17 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 2c | 5,569$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 4,072$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…9eb3backed Yes | 7c | 3,672$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Yes | 4c | 2,876$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 2,844$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672c…f9e2backed Yes | 8c | 2,353$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…06fbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,286$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8076…ef33backed Yes | 8c | 1,972$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…febdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,944$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…e476backed Yes | 8c | 1,794$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…441bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,757$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,750$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…f847backed Yes | 8c | 1,728$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ef…83f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,721$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a1…c753backed Yes | 8c | 1,680$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…c28dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,670$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…7446backed Yes | 8c | 1,627$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…db35backed Yes | 8c | 1,617$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…db0dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,616$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…e987backed Yes | 8c | 1,579$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…a88ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,570$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742d…b762backed Yes | 7c | 1,543$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…d5d1backed Yes | 8c | 1,528$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92e…5334backed Yes | 7c | 1,437$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…9785backed Yes | 7c | 1,411$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…e116backed Yes | 7c | 1,401$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…5145backed Yes | 8c | 1,395$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…087bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,330$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 2c | 1,326$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,323$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…59b1backed Yes | 8c | 1,319$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a0…8a91backed Yes | 8c | 1,317$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…5958backed Yes | 8c | 1,306$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…2e2ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,304$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…2e71backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…3d4dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,260$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…fd0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e8…5d1abacked Yes | 7c | 1,213$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…42eebacked Yes | 7c | 1,191$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…ee1cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,166$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 11c | 1,141$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…b0bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,102$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…ae6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,092$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…1748backed Yes | 8c | 1,085$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96aa…0547backed Yes | 7c | 1,073$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13db…3e4dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,062$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 14c | 1,054$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…997ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,035$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5827…0c73backed Yes | 7c | 1,031$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b97…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,017$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…83a6backed Yes | 8c | 1,017$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,015$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…686abacked Yes | 7c | 1,011$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…387ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,010$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…2d98backed Yes | 7c | 994$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…7b70backed Yes | 8c | 993.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9002…9ca7backed Yes | 7c | 988$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bf…1c21backed Yes | 8c | 980$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…3ad1backed Yes | 7c | 973$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62f…4854backed Yes | 7c | 963$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…61a5backed Yes | 7c | 957$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8089…2f38backed Yes | 7c | 956$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…d156backed Yes | 8c | 956$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 942.91$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…d6d5backed Yes | 7c | 942$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdc…2e6ebacked Yes | 7c | 941$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…c950backed Yes | 8c | 940$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…e011backed Yes | 7c | 935$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…3f66backed Yes | 8c | 933$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 910$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4139…625bbacked Yes | 7c | 908$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 4c | 889.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c7…0f2dbacked Yes | 7c | 839$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1722…36ffbacked Yes | 7c | 833$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…42d1backed Yes | 8c | 830$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 809$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…5ff1backed Yes | 8c | 765$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7c32backed Yes | 8c | 748$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…c172backed Yes | 8c | 747$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1742…c03ebacked Yes | 7c | 746$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…d688backed Yes | 8c | 744$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…7aefbacked Yes | 8c | 740$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…a08ebacked Yes | 7c | 730$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…6f5dbacked Yes | 8c | 723$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 714.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…feb6backed Yes | 8c | 691$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 682.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeae…92d8backed Yes | 8c | 675$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 661.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…074fbacked Yes | 8c | 653$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…012bbacked Yes | 8c | 638$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…55ecbacked Yes | 16c | 637.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…8168backed Yes | 8c | 634$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 620.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5a7bbacked Yes | 8c | 568$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb864…936dbacked Yes | 8c | 541$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…da44backed Yes | 8c | 531$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Yes won
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.