AI · resolved market
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843256b0c49a6deab845ede353cb6201ef1f371e82d1c996ef2fd9062b605d80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 8,800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,342$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked Yes | 16c | 782$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 15c | 705$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 629.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 14c | 488$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 15c | 448$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 17c | 429.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 15c | 372$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 17c | 362$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…a063backed Yes | 14c | 340.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 13c | 327$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…3037backed Yes | 12c | 321$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…5ea0backed Yes | 13c | 245$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 15c | 243$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 13c | 208$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 205.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 13c | 205$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 12c | 200.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 8c | 193.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 7c | 154.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 9c | 126.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 10c | 103.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Yes won
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.