AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ea03c4c7961402d2e494e7382aa127ed94745f08e11f21829f0e622fc1874a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $455,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $447,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $455,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 691 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 17,045$12,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,228.85 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 10,768$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.82 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 26c | 10,598$2,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.57 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556f…3fa7backed Yes | 21c | 9,550$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 8,545$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.95 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…fd3ebacked Yes | 31c | 6,100$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.22 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 65c | 4,925$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.89 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 40c | 4,398$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 70c | 3,841$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.86 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 66c | 3,657$2,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…fd95backed No | 79c | 3,623$2,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…f71abacked Yes | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…9203backed No | 79c | 2,999$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e3…9bf1backed No | 79c | 2,928$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 21c | 2,755$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 75c | 2,751$2,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.52 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 70c | 2,741$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.93 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 8c | 2,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 26c | 2,497$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 69c | 2,443$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.23 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,438$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 73c | 2,403$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 65c | 2,360$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.99 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 69c | 2,168$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 71c | 2,011$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.3 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 75c | 1,963$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.98 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 34c | 1,948$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 73c | 1,936$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 72c | 1,893$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,891$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.71 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 33c | 1,865$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,790$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.35 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 28c | 1,648$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…75f7backed Yes | 9c | 1,607$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 26c | 1,599$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.83 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,589$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.55 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed Yes | 30c | 1,471$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 35c | 1,394$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 73c | 1,375$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.29 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 1,364$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.82 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…1e50backed Yes | 9c | 1,332$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +272%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 71c | 1,323$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.56 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,316$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f3…2568backed Yes | 29c | 1,307$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 27c | 1,296$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 67c | 1,292$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 1,284$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.35 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 21c | 1,266$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 79c | 1,215$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 23c | 1,187$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.16 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 79c | 1,178$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 26c | 1,175$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.79 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked No | 79c | 1,166$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 74c | 1,156$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 26c | 1,150$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 1,136$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.18 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 27c | 1,123$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…3816backed Yes | 40c | 1,120$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 35c | 1,109$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed No | 67c | 1,107$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 36c | 1,105$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 30c | 1,085$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,079$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.54 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,072$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 76c | 1,057$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed Yes | 24c | 1,042$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 64c | 1,037$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 68c | 1,030$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 79c | 1,016$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.36 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 28c | 1,008$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 75c | 1,008$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 79c | 999.98$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed Yes | 28c | 999.98$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 68c | 999$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed No | 78c | 993$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 23c | 990$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.02 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 73c | 986$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45f0…4435backed No | 78c | 967$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 24c | 957$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 67c | 950$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 74c | 948$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked No | 73c | 948$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb660…9250backed Yes | 11c | 947.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 30c | 945$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 27c | 924$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed Yes | 22c | 922$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 79c | 899$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…3d2cbacked Yes | 25c | 892.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 74c | 891$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.66 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 888.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed No | 70c | 885$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 80c | 879$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 22c | 877$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 30c | 873$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 22c | 873$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…169dbacked Yes | 35c | 870.15$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 71c | 863$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Yes won
- Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.