TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x34a9…9e88

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
193
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT5324.5%13 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick25cpaid+21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.12
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.88
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$325
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$275
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$420
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$275
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$610
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.26
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$375
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+794.5%+$2,261.79
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.26
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$1,464.71
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$629.37
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$308
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.28
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.2
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,329.99
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$164.17
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$530.5
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+206%+$514.97
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,219Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,218.57
Will the U.S. take a stake in Intel by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+196.7%+$608.7
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$411.8
Will Trump meet with Putin in Alaska on August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$390.3
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.85
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.85
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$293.32
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$600.7
30% EU tariff in effect by August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+27%+$130.6
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+50.7%+$269
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,210
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$491Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+110.1%+$540.85
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$448.27
Trump approval >40% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$345
Trump x Khamenei talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,509.99
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$477.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,220Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$780
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Israel strikes Iran before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$734Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$357
US strikes Yemen by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$142.64
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,647Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+35.9%+$591.12
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$636.65
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Israel strikes Syria by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+100.4%+$356.54
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$890Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+73.6%+$655.45
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$470
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$413.8
Will Israel raid Gaza aid ship Handala by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$314
Israel strikes Syria by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$460
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+178.4%+$1,106.32
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,879.98
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,274Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,274
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$570.73
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$7,160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+95.5%+$6,839.97
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$747Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+79.4%+$593.2
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.5
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,287.95
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$710
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,060
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.45
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,171Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$2,246.13
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.25
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$733Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$732.53
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$595Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$217.35
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$454
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$174.38
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$340.44
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$81.56
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$742.5
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$242.1
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,857Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$2,856.76
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$938Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$937.77
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$258.84
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.67
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$448
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+66.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$906Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$257.1
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$1,335
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$460.59
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election by between 10% and 20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.56
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+35%+$28.77
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election by less than 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$23.45
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+404.4%+$895.49
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.41
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,831Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,831.15
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$426.64
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,218Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.7%+$373.54
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+39.6%+$340.32
Han Duck-soo in jail by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+40.9%+$146
All 15 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 3 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.77
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 3 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.69
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.87
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.1
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.28
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 3 Arsenal FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.03
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$465.59
Will Palmeiras beat Chelsea in regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Palmeiras vs. Chelsea end in a draw after regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Al Hilal beat Fluminense in regulation time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$560
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)backed Al Hilal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$550
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)backed Al Hilal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+896.9%+$1,306.79
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 350–364 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$124.63
Will Elon tweet 275–289 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.99
Will Elon tweet 230–244 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.92
Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$208.68
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$335
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+223.9%+$727.42
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$1,335
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$440
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$368.81
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST70%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-82%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+715%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$78
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$108.54
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.46
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$306
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$188.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,760Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+44%+$774.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,208Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30%+$960.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.