Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Yemen by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92688c9e9981248edecd6a22dd3c4dcf0e9aa392f75de5674690219878ad5216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6f6…e34ebacked Yes | 14c | 4,938$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,225$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…c179backed Yes | 2c | 2,148$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…8414backed Yes | 3c | 1,999$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 1,680$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,302$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 2c | 1,273$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 1,093$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 9c | 1,070$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0790…fd72backed Yes | 4c | 1,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…19f4backed Yes | 2c | 795.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 20c | 723.29$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.55 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 10c | 705.49$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 617.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 74c | 542.02$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 3c | 527.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 464.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 14c | 416.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 10c | 386.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 365.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…b919backed Yes | 4c | 360$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 13c | 329$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 319.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 11c | 148.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…e663backed Yes | 13c | 148.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 10c | 129.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 15c | 107.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 15c | 104.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…fb7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked Yes | 15c | 75.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…9a7dbacked Yes | 15c | 64.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 79c | 33.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.