Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2484da0aab8e0047c584bd69e48f5bc4c93347502fa673b4651b3e66c1dce90c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 13c | 4,383$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.17 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 12c | 2,866$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.87 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 2,581$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.33 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 14c | 1,456$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.94 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…ea6ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 10c | 876.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacfa…53f4backed No | 75c | 870$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 14c | 700$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…d51abacked Yes | 12c | 698.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…9015backed Yes | 16c | 572.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7924…9364backed Yes | 19c | 538.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 498.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 421$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 17c | 413.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…b041backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 78c | 400$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +715%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 30c | 379.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 12c | 330$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 14c | 312.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 12c | 228$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 77c | 188.44$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 9c | 150.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 14c | 128$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…c9f8backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 13c | 119.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 93.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?this page
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.