Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x813917fd5678498d2c73106d5c625b8f13fea87d675699a5de65ab7c2accfa2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 10,909$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 27c | 2,400$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.85 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,750$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.37 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 4c | 1,535$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +715%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 1,381$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.64 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 1,344$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.99 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 1,116$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.07 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 55c | 1,084$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 880.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 862.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.06 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 5c | 826.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f08…b729backed Yes | 4c | 733.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,456.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 8c | 458.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +178.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 3c | 374.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.15 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…b041backed Yes | 6c | 349.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 320$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.72 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 7c | 305.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.4 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 76c | 103.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?this page
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.