Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe076775db611f7251355b36a64512233c8c756ce3a22ef8cc2ecda4be6fa4c8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 31c | 2,398$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.11 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 2,187$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.94 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 25c | 1,422$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.52 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 28c | 1,279$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.37 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 23c | 1,150$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.43 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 28c | 677.04$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 69c | 499.99$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 32c | 450$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…987ebacked Yes | 27c | 449.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed No | 72c | 371.93$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 346.41$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 67c | 283.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 280.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 76c | 253.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 71c | 219.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed Yes | 33c | 211.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 31c | 206.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff00…c146backed Yes | 30c | 203.57$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 33c | 193$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 29c | 173.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 170$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 33c | 165.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 158.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed Yes | 30c | 146.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ed…96e1backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…b041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 86.98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 77c | 82$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…cb4bbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…729ebacked Yes | 34c | 62.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab39…c22fbacked Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…e638backed Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…6ed1backed Yes | 33c | 36.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a8…59e3backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 72c | 34.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?this page
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%?Yes won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.0%?No won
- Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.