TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbab…2cd0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 58 out of 100; worst AI at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT3641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,658Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,658
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$148.97
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$307Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+218.9%+$671.98
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$211.8
Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$57.98
Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$5.43
Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$646Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$646.13
Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.54
Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$128.65
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+121.3%+$69.4
Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.52
Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+45.4%+$50.45
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$183.9
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.69
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31%+$15.57
Will Powell say "Judge" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+122%+$258.9
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.96
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$487.73
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.35
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$294.96
Will Powell say "Summer" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$185
Will Powell say "Immigration" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.91
Will Powell say "Energy" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2025, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$122.98
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.04
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$29.01
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$495Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$495.03
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Iran" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$633.32
Will Trump say "ICE" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$289.85
Will Trump say "Dome" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$53
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+329.6%+$599.51
Will Trump say "America / American" 35+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$417.5
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.79
Will Trump say "Space Force" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.81
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$447.63
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+226.1%+$394.81
Will Trump say "Trans / Transgender" during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$31.82
Will anyone say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will anyone say "Trump" 15+ times during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Trump say "COVID" or "Pandemic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+150%+$118.06
Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$210
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$155
Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$275
Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$230
Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$150
Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$155
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$49.4
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$424.17
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or less in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$655Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$655
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$163.96
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$345
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$260
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$540.85
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$216.72
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$702Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$702.5
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$230
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$155
Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.99
All 18 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2025, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.6
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+31.4%+$71.7
Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$121
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$177.95
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$324.99
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+300%+$375
Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$270
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$170
Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$77.39
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-82.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk say "Trump" during the August 6 AMA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Elon Musk say "xAI" 2 or more times during the August 6 AMA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$368.9
Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$42
Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.41
Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.99
Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.97
Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 8 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$125
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.