AI · resolved market
Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x360ff4d370fda61d8207f2c79c76952dbed5ba768c3414bd705e360574a0fc2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb134…3e8abacked No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…94dcbacked No | 27c | 935$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…5165backed Yes | 73c | 905$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 28c | 723.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 69c | 695.41$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.73 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 73c | 577.08$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…aa0bbacked Yes | 73c | 540$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 13c | 499.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…3418backed Yes | 72c | 415$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed No | 28c | 399.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…e58abacked Yes | 72c | 385$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 32c | 309.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 19c | 303.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…3384backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d13…caa5backed No | 27c | 249.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…5df6backed No | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed Yes | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…b725backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 155.27$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 77c | 150.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Yes | 72c | 138.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 64c | 130$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…98a1backed No | 20c | 127.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae2…428fbacked No | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked No | 28c | 107.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 106$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda13…0458backed Yes | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 22c | 101.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…95bdbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +757.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 26c | 99.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6a00backed Yes | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…ed56backed No | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 78.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…a992backed Yes | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437d…6c11backed No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…05cebacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…485cbacked No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…3a85backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb057…010abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…2c3cbacked Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +367.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…2e05backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 73c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…01f2backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…01f2backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…26d7backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343b…c7eebacked Yes | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Musk say "China" 3+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?this page
- Will Musk say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "DOGE" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Inflation" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Mars" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?No won
- Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Tariff" 5+ times during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
- Will Musk say "Trump" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.