TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf327…0b68

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
208
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stephen Miller be next National Security Advisor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$17.2
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.14
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$14.11
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Trump deploys National Guard to a blue city by September 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Will Donald Trump issue 5–7 executive orders in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$71.75
Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.66
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump remove majority of reciprocal tariffs before 90 day deadline? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+43.6%+$36.38
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.37
Will Donald Trump issue 20-24 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Donald Trump issue 10-14 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.24
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+226%+$140.72
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$354Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$354.01
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.16
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.29
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.53
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT3638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.66
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.66
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.78
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$472.99
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Powell say "Again" 10+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+88.9%+$34.88
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$191
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$23.9
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+43.6%+$11.88
Will Powell say "Mandate" 6+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.63
Will Powell say "Update" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
Will Powell say "Stagflation" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+30.4%+$9.9
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+39.3%+$25.4
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+37%+$18.9
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$59.08
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+76.3%+$299.83
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.18
Will Powell say "Dissent" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.28
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$162
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.67
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+114.9%+$780.6
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$209.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,053Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,053.48
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST2763%17 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+62.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's meeting with Netanyahu not air?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+110.5%+$161.12
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.39
Will Donald Trump say "hostage" 4+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+156.4%+$60.99
Will Trump say "Rwanda" or "Congo" 12+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+93.9%+$63.27
Will Trump say "Eight wars" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+37.8%+$46.37
Will Trump say "31 years" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+122.2%+$36.23
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+66.5%+$47.12
Will Trump say "Border" or "Tariff" 5+ times during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$29.7
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+79.3%+$61.9
Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+138.1%+$23.2
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+28.2%+$8.8
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+316.7%+$45.59
Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.9
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.03
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$115
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.86
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$163.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$834Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+98.3%+$819.84
Israel strikes Iranian oil in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+583.7%+$136.38
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$78
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+289.6%+$223
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solana all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$245.31
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+156.4%+$30.5
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$46.7
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$106.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+247.4%+$163.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+114.9%+$208.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$368Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+27.8%+$102.25
Will Bitcoin dip to $105,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$88.78
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,799Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,798.98
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$272.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K August 25–31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.05
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$907Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$907.21
Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,011Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+104.2%+$3,137.07
Will Solana reach $210 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$265.55
Ethereum all time high before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$481Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+45.5%+$219
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$93
Will Solana reach $190 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Ethereum reach $4400 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$124.2
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+31.4%+$191
Bitcoin all time high before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$263.99
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$76.8
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$55
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$92
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+85.3%+$278.55
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.13
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST2147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+44.9%+$9.3
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+43.4%+$20.31
Will Trump say "North Korea" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will Trump say "King" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+52.5%+$7.3
Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+57.1%+$9.08
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will Trump say "Google" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.65
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+47.3%+$21
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$28.2
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+43.8%+$38.42
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.35
Bolsonaro guilty?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.9
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.64
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.34
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$72
Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$170.43
Will Canada lower tariffs on the U.S. before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.74
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.99
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.1
All 21 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.95
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$304.99
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$64.98
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.1
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.58
Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.55
Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.21
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 12+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+150%+$30
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.44
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.68
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$19.5
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT+163%+$101.69
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.69
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 16 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$425.18
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+145.1%+$295.99
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$778Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$777.7
Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.25
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+45.6%+$37.6
Will Trump say "Thank you" or "Please" 13+ times during the medal presentation on December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+73.9%+$85
Will Trump say "Tren de Aragua" during the medal presentation on December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$207.4
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$48
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$34.64
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$148.5
Will Gold hit $3,600 before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$4.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend F1 Miami GP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.