Us Politics · resolved market
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeff5a8f07d5f69289139ce0e28a2f0e5feb9d9741712a3f84f782de591b94de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 12c | 13,104$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 12c | 7,263$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.77 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 17c | 3,083$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.84 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 10c | 2,371$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.63 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 30c | 1,408$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.41 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,397$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 79c | 1,028$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 984.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 8c | 900.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 18c | 880.68$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 76c | 750$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.22 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 65c | 596.6$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 550$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes | 21c | 485.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 22c | 446.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 10c | 415.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a68…57c2backed No | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 73c | 368.79$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 8c | 355.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…ae97backed Yes | 19c | 345$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 298.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 297.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 8c | 249.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 208.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 8c | 200.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 164.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 9c | 156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…9768backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 13c | 137.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…1106backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3197backed Yes | 51c | 77.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…e800backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…4822backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…0b68backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 50c | 43.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 28c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…6223backed No | 80c | 15.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…fc54backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?this page
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 11 and August 17?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 18 and August 24?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 25 and August 31?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 4 and August 10?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 1 and July 6?Yes won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 14 and July 20?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 21 and July 27?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 28 and August 3?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 7 and July 13?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed on or after September 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.