Us Politics · resolved market
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 1 and July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6614b7f1dc05afae436714c4fca3f0b9d6a8d90854d000c346ccdcb7d101a18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,864$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.47 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,513$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 52c | 1,066$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.42 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 66c | 1,000$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.51 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 20c | 898.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +151.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 54c | 808.27$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.18 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 45c | 787.87$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 61c | 720.48$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.34 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 52c | 687.62$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.06 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 72c | 590.39$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 29c | 545.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.47 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed No | 34c | 505.49$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 26c | 334.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…16a5backed Yes | 65c | 306.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 48c | 300.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 7c | 293.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.93 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 57c | 292.19$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 7c | 288$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.42 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 38c | 229.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 53c | 227$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 204.43$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 72c | 204.2$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…18a1backed No | 51c | 204$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 31c | 190.64$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 51c | 172.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…cde2backed No | 37c | 162.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…e0ebbacked Yes | 63c | 159.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…6ec9backed Yes | 73c | 157.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 47c | 154.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 66c | 151.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…0469backed Yes | 63c | 141.72$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 55c | 130.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 42c | 113.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…cc26backed Yes | 75c | 112.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…a2c4backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…0d78backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 41c | 88.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2748backed Yes | 71c | 88.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 59c | 88.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd02d…17e8backed Yes | 65c | 86.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…beebbacked Yes | 66c | 83.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef2…bc22backed Yes | 78c | 81.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…ca8bbacked Yes | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No | 29c | 65.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…ba75backed No | 67c | 60.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 36c | 59.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…3d4dbacked Yes | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 42c | 45.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…9a7dbacked Yes | 69c | 40.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbda…fdbbbacked Yes | 74c | 40.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bec…56d0backed No | 38c | 39.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbd…261bbacked No | 59c | 33.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 77c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 79c | 29.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…8408backed No | 37c | 27.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e2…bb8dbacked Yes | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938f…2680backed No | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 23.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…6943backed Yes | 75c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…fca3backed Yes | 77c | 17.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b134backed Yes | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 67c | 15.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 1 and July 6?this page
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 11 and August 17?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 18 and August 24?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 25 and August 31?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between August 4 and August 10?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 14 and July 20?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 21 and July 27?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 28 and August 3?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 7 and July 13?No won
- Will the next reconciliation bill be passed on or after September 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.