TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd073…b757

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
238
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT3557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,269.89
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,598.42
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$8,287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,286.59
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,269.76
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$983Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$483.92
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$551Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$529.4
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81.9%+$105.77
Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$99.2
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advancebacked Senegal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.82
England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$826Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.9%+$411.95
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.31
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$94.42
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$289.02
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$191.99
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$111.29
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$212.65
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$230.13
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+71.1%+$244.3
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,302Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$489.29
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT3560%21 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+72.2%+$197.82
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$422
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+82.2%+$311.26
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$593.4
Dodgers vs. Redsbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$79
Blue Jays vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.3
Mets vs. Giantsbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$59.73
Phillies vs. Yankeesbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$135.48
Phillies vs. Padresbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+37.8%+$50.6
Guardians vs. White Soxbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+83.3%+$210.42
Nationals vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$51.72
Mets vs. Oriolesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Marlins vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+62.3%+$97.73
Cubs vs. Twinsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
Angels vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$81
Brewers vs. Marlinsbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$112.91
Red Sox vs. Nationalsbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$112.77
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+96.2%+$114.47
Padres vs. Philliesbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$74
Athletics vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$97.52
Astros vs. Rockiesbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$416.95
Yankees vs. Blue Jaysbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$559Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$559
Twins vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+36.5%+$344.1
Mets vs. Piratesbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$180.4
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT3429.4%10 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-54.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Tennis — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Zverevbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$723Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$723.24
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Novak Djokovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5backed Over 3.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovicbacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Nikola Bartunkovabacked Katerina Siniakova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Dammbacked Martin Damm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.94
Wimbledon WTA: Janice Tjen vs Daria Kasatkinabacked Daria Kasatkina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+107.9%+$365.47
Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Ofnerbacked Hubert Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$98.57
Wimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Jointbacked Serena Williams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$502.89
Wimbledon WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Donna Vekicbacked Donna Vekic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$727Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$727.26
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritzbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$736Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$736.49
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Danielbacked Alexander Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.86
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$140.12
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.13
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$100.7
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinskabacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.19
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungellitibacked Corentin Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.79
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$35.29
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$122
Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Khachanovbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$28.38
Wimbledon: Krejcikova vs. Navarro (W) backed Krejcikova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$142.39
Wimbledon: Darderi vs. Thompsonbacked Darderi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Wimbledon: Mochizuki vs. Khachanovbacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+92.2%+$167.88
Wimbledon: Rublev vs. Harrisbacked Harris · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$64
Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Tiafoe backed Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+293.6%+$587.26
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$233.79
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+25%+$36.98
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$401
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.79
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.97
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$197.01
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$647.71
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,468Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,468.05
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+119.5%+$232.12
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be more than 72%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,626.39
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.73
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+203.7%+$242.37
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,019.4
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$7,506Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+255.9%+$19,206.1
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+216.3%+$432.59
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+89.9%+$3,694.35
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,442Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,441.94
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+153.4%+$153.41
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$121
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$878Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$878.18
Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT2536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.08
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+53%+$53.03
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+47.2%+$207.67
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,175.69
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$225
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$369Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$369.08
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 1 and July 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+30.6%+$7.65
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+47.9%+$47.93
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+63.4%+$118.58
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,315Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+40.6%+$534.13
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$46.08
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$74.04
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$455.68
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$98.51
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$708.24
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.79
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$307.85
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.82
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$6,647Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$6,647.46
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$552.56
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$54.63
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$157.75
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,641Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,641
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$210
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$37.74
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.06
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,611Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+53%+$1,913.8
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+35.6%+$525.25
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,801Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+45.7%+$1,279.71
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$22.42
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,922Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+35.4%+$1,033.22
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$52.24
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$473Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$473.08
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$306
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,185Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+54.5%+$646.21
Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$139
Will Assad remain President of Syria through 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$415Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$415.47
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,146Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+86.5%+$1,855.81
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$54.81
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+27.3%+$48.41
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+36%+$36.04
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$110.68
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+70.3%+$65.92
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+48%+$177.95
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$300
All 7 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-33.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 320–334 times May 30–June 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+63.8%+$63.82
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+121.3%+$152.71
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Panthers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$138.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$333
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UEFA Europa Conference League Final: Real Betis vs. Chelseabacked Real Betis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$213.3
Europa League Finalbacked Man United · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$119.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Royal Challengers Bangalore vs. Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.