Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99cae1b83694726803dd03dea2465fee332ba788b8a9d24e42e9ddd5391c6b9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,056,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,046,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,056,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7371…0ce4backed Yes | 16c | 37,658$6,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,073.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…bd71backed Yes | 27c | 34,397$9,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,298.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…bca8backed Yes | 11c | 29,996$3,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,424.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 56c | 28,655$16,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,511.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 28,491$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.42 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 1c | 27,716$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.23 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 32c | 25,645$8,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,251.6 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…6689backed Yes | 18c | 24,535$4,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,526.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 4c | 23,930$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.19 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…95cebacked No | 69c | 23,892$16,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,364.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 1c | 16,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 67c | 15,264$10,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,090.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…b95ebacked Yes | 1c | 15,133$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1062…0c85backed Yes | 18c | 15,002$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 71c | 14,116$10,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,042.62 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…ec94backed Yes | 1c | 13,115$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 31c | 12,682$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 75c | 11,250$8,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…c7b7backed Yes | 2c | 11,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 36c | 10,021$3,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,626.15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7542…2268backed Yes | 52c | 9,621$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed No | 75c | 8,843$6,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,212.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 14c | 8,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 41c | 7,630$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 31c | 7,589$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.18 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 7,558$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…f32abacked Yes | 2c | 7,472$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 23c | 7,079$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 36c | 6,744$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.51 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 71c | 6,412$4,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…6148backed Yes | 8c | 6,238$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…2275backed Yes | 23c | 6,015$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 20c | 6,000$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…bbd5backed Yes | 35c | 5,714$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 5,650$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed Yes | 42c | 5,565$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,337.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…3115backed Yes | 1c | 5,543$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 38c | 5,506$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 65c | 5,390$3,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.27 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 47c | 5,188$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.94 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023a…4fbcbacked Yes | 35c | 5,055$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 1c | 4,858$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…7f64backed Yes | 44c | 4,500$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d5…3527backed Yes | 23c | 4,488$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…a0f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,332$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…c3dcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,147$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…3ec8backed No | 60c | 3,942$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 5c | 3,864$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes | 1c | 3,615$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 1c | 3,550$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked No | 75c | 3,500$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 33c | 3,498$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…935cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,327$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…463fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,218$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 1c | 3,105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 14c | 3,066$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 41c | 3,010$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 59c | 3,004$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b50…0b49backed Yes | 20c | 2,790$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 35c | 2,781$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…3899backed Yes | 28c | 2,723$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 73c | 2,654$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7f…b401backed Yes | 27c | 2,654$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…3161backed Yes | 4c | 2,626$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…a880backed Yes | 10c | 2,612$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbc…88afbacked Yes | 39c | 2,583$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 2,538$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed Yes | 40c | 2,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Yes | 22c | 2,305$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 27c | 2,290$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.14 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba25…aa2cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,271$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 38c | 2,200$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.4 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 32c | 2,196$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.26 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…61f7backed Yes | 39c | 2,096$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 17c | 2,023$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 10c | 1,982$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 19c | 1,951$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 49c | 1,949$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.72 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…40d6backed Yes | 30c | 1,830$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…6552backed Yes | 20c | 1,683$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a79…2983backed Yes | 25c | 1,588$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3650…e9c8backed Yes | 32c | 1,584$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 8c | 1,584$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 75c | 1,582$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed No | 76c | 1,528$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 21c | 1,515$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.09 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 1,381$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.31 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,349$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 14c | 1,349$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.1 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 22c | 1,308$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed No | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 19c | 1,224$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210a…d04ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,200$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.