Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05904e19533e1babd563de24a3da89d87d00741b98b6dc692025f21ef6c52319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,540,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,774,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,540,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3389…bd71backed No | 21c | 458,449$95,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,564.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…628fbacked No | 3c | 236,869$8,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,110.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 71c | 76,888$54,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,094.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 54c | 61,027$32,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,079.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 72c | 25,000$18,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,993.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed Yes | 70c | 24,283$16,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,284.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 78c | 20,939$16,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,652.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 31c | 19,227$5,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,897.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 72c | 18,906$13,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,312.8 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 74c | 18,673$13,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,917.71 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 77c | 15,342$11,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.94 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 72c | 14,898$10,756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,142.18 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 51c | 14,598$7,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,082.13 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 42c | 14,414$5,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,417.46 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed Yes | 62c | 14,395$8,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,469.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed Yes | 79c | 13,248$10,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 1c | 11,511$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.16 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b4…1d96backed No | 1c | 10,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…95cebacked Yes | 63c | 8,368$5,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 67c | 7,000$4,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 36c | 6,543$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.08 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 62c | 6,242$3,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,361.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed No | 24c | 6,233$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 15c | 6,085$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.75 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 44c | 6,000$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed No | 2c | 5,609$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad1…b2f4backed Yes | 73c | 4,485$3,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 53c | 4,106$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.93 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 4,064$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed No | 31c | 4,043$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…bbd5backed Yes | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed Yes | 35c | 3,985$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 4c | 3,680$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…6502backed No | 1c | 3,598$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed No | 35c | 3,577$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 24c | 2,815$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 43c | 2,783$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.28 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed No | 34c | 2,710$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 33c | 2,700$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 23c | 2,360$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.23 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb23…62e2backed Yes | 46c | 2,193$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 13c | 2,131$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.06 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…2275backed Yes | 59c | 2,046$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…430cbacked No | 45c | 2,015$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.23 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,888$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 40c | 1,853$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.07 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 22c | 1,850$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x438d…3ec8backed Yes | 61c | 1,668$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…3115backed No | 1c | 1,658$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a79…2983backed No | 24c | 1,538$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 79c | 1,528$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96a…396abacked Yes | 77c | 1,455$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.47 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06f…a7a7backed No | 25c | 1,429$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 1,387$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…3350backed No | 41c | 1,366$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…cef5backed Yes | 78c | 1,348$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b2ffbacked Yes | 75c | 1,326$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad9…4760backed Yes | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 78c | 1,250$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…7b05backed Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…553bbacked No | 48c | 1,238$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 74c | 1,197$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 75c | 1,042$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…a2cabacked Yes | 78c | 990.6$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7e…15bfbacked No | 31c | 974.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…6069backed No | 18c | 967$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 75c | 936.81$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.88 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf7…17b5backed Yes | 55c | 823.16$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 35c | 755$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.75 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…690ebacked Yes | 59c | 730$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 27c | 718.87$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed No | 13c | 714.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…b5b0backed Yes | 80c | 707.87$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 51c | 686.82$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.54 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedf…966abacked Yes | 73c | 675.19$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…a981backed Yes | 80c | 659.01$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 79c | 636.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 27c | 634.09$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed No | 29c | 615.65$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…eaf6backed No | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 73c | 590.41$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…fff3backed Yes | 79c | 550$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 58c | 541.06$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…ccb1backed Yes | 79c | 530$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e1…f226backed No | 20c | 494.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 492.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b14…d18cbacked Yes | 63c | 451.74$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…3683backed No | 16c | 440$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 61c | 431.58$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked No | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked No | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 75c | 396.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 33c | 388.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.84 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Nevada US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.