TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71b6…1f27

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.5
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$79.2
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$91
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Randy Fine win by 10-15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$55.25
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$58.5
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$45
Trump transgender sports ban?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$35
Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+40.8%+$14.5
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+614.3%+$129
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30.8
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$40
Will Zohran Mamdani win The Bronx in the 2025 New York City Mayoral General Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$364.64
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13.3
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+100%+$15
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+100%+$50
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+100%+$50
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+112.8%+$53
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$10
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$368
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+117.4%+$234.78
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Republicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+92.3%+$230.77
All 23 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST1662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+66.7%+$80
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$19.9
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$3.75
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$28.8
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$80.6
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+37%+$18.49
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.4
Will the Green Party win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+100%+$10
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25%+$12
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$33.8
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$55
All 16 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+97.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-71.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.