Us Politics · resolved market
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b27e717332a64dd9c355b4872eb7e28a0e740c6ea5670cc0900ad018a7341df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,981$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 6c | 2,209$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 17c | 2,119$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.63 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.56 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5b…21a7backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 1,344$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…ed3fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,339$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,178$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 12c | 810$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 6c | 775.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 6c | 699.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 8c | 638.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes | 22c | 559.48$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…e435backed Yes | 18c | 555$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 532.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 516.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…8189backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 18c | 417.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 390.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 369.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 5c | 360$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 312.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 5c | 279.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 14c | 276.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed No | 77c | 239.09$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 9c | 229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 14c | 181$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 14c | 175$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 80c | 113.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…eeb4backed Yes | 43c | 93.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?this page
- Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.