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Wallet 0x8196…ab69
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x81962d4b60e570db68de998ae77a35d07822ab69
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$34,262 staked over 240 qualified picks in 18 categories, 8 of 18 below 50.
Best category
IPO
$119 staked over 2 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full IPO boardSecond best
Venezuela
$1,101 staked over 4 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Venezuela boardThird best
AI
$4,869 staked over 28 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full AI boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$556.93 tailing 2 IPO picks (2 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +556.9% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified IPO picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category18 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| IPOlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $119 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.6693% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4 | +0.71 | 29c | +556.9% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Venezuelalast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $1,101 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2877% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 77% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5 | +0.37 | 38c | +92.3% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| AIlast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $4,869 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 49 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | +0.10107% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 107% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 7 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.7 | +0.09 | 44c | -13.6% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $1,039 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 27 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09121% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 121% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1 | +0.08 | 32c | +28.7% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $249 | —no start of play | 8 h 09to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7 | +0.15 | 25c | +20.4% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Stocks Inactivelast settled Jun 3, 2026, EDT | $401 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.33101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6 | +0.32 | 68c | +48.1% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Middle Eastlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $10,541 | —no start of play | 23 h 17resells, median over 117 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 72 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0392% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 44 of 68 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +2.2 | +0.03 | 34c | -10.6% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $2,492 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 27 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8 | +0.05 | 39c | +62.8% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBA Inactivelast settled Jul 26, 2026, EDT | $1,000 | —no start of play | 4 h 21resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 5% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2 | +0.24 | 76c | +31.1% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Midtermslast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $1,372 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 15 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | +0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 25% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 7 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2 | +0.03 | 47c | -18.7% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Jul 13, 2026, EDT | $13 | —no start of play | 3 h 01to the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0 | -0.02 | 2c | -100% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $1,111 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2 | -0.02 | 31c | +42.5% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Boxing Inactivelast settled Apr 18, 2025, EDT | $22 | —no start of play | 18 h 42resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2 | -0.22 | 22c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Movies Inactivelast settled Mar 16, 2026, EDT | $56 | —no start of play | 6 h 31resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.37no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.40 | 40c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| China Taiwanlast settled Sep 23, 2026, EDT | $853 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5 | -0.10 | 30c | +53% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 9, 2026, EDT | $167 | —too few: 1 pick | 7 h 45resells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5 | -0.16 | 16c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Politicslast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $8,473 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 107 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 80 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 13 of 64 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -1.9 | -0.03 | 33c | -13.3% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $382 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8 | -0.09 | 31c | -68.6% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 16
- What they are worth now
- $5,805bought for $3,830
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 15worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 16, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 3,780 | 49c | 97c | $3,684 |
| Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 493 | 95c | 98c | $484 |
| Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 317 | 82c | 96c | $303 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 378.79 | 66c | 63c | $237 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 261.43 | 80c | 88c | $230 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 277.78 | 72c | 72c | $200 |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 984 | 20c | 20c | $197 |
| Haiti elections delayed again? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 175.98 | 83c | 91c | $160 |
| Nuñez out as French Interior Minister by October 25, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 71 | 96c | 99c | $70 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes | 67.75 | 87c | 96c | $65 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 15. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 1,181 | 10c | $0 | Counted |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 22? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 1,091 | 1c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x6a7a…99fabacked outcome 1 | 909.09 | 22c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x0d58…50bbbacked outcome 0 | 833.33 | 1c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x1c64…4056backed outcome 1 | 625 | 16c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 2 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above. 3 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.