Us Politics · resolved market

Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23ee163941278ad17a6a3d94beee043653e42679f18862e8eb116eeaf31262a9

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,313 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2aac…dfadbacked No	47c	765.03$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$405.05	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes	14c	361.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.41	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	52c	300$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5253…d2f5backed Yes	47c	231.34$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.05	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed No	38c	210.53$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.55	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes	55c	181.76$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	43c	166.59$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.39	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No	34c	130.71$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.27	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes	36c	107.9$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	109	50.5%55 W · 54 L	+12.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No	37c	106$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.78	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes	67c	102$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.73	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed No	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	25c	77$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.53	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No	70c	67.83$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.35	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	72cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes	18c	62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+71.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No	64c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.82	101	37.6%38 W · 63 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	28c	59.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	333	13.2%44 W · 289 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No	58c	58.58$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.39	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes	53c	52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-8.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	73c	50$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked No	21c	49.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.83	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+49%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	55c	45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	24cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Yes	36c	41.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21cb…d3b1backed No	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+93.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	70c	31$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.4wins	-0.31per pick	49cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x60f2…6478backed Yes	70c	19.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+163.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4422…bb8cbacked Yes	71c	19.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event