Us Politics · resolved market
Will Lisa Murkowski vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa479ad271c9c18cfa5007b7778d27c13bea130d6f60471788b9ef22a6739f3fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 49c | 289.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 42c | 213$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed Yes | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked No | 38c | 170.42$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 43c | 98.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 35c | 68.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 61.61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 28c | 60.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21cb…d3b1backed No | 55c | 56.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 36c | 44.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 33c | 42.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00db…930abacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 53c | 30.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 38c | 28.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed No | 68c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d74…d062backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?this page
- Will Amy Klobuchar vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Angus King vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Chris Coons vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Chris Murphy vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Chuck Schumer vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Jeanne Shaheen vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Maggie Hassan vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Patty Murray vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Rand Paul vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Rick Scott vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
- Will Tim Kaine vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.