Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143e01264b7658f59060d5b46e858ff02ad16251329504c9cac9be33ab85d0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed No | 26c | 7,401$1,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 2c | 4,398$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 25c | 2,826$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 2c | 1,081$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 923.53$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.65 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43c1…bcc9backed No | 79c | 868.57$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 22c | 747.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 59c | 676.62$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 23c | 557.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 3c | 498.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 73c | 386.39$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.92 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 78c | 321$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3022…59c1backed Yes | 37c | 306.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 80c | 296.89$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 284.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.06 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…6767backed No | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 72c | 239.47$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 26c | 237.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.7 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 18c | 234.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 52c | 210.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…76d9backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebe…72e1backed No | 75c | 188.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 181.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 71c | 181$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.77 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 24c | 176.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…94a6backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 152.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.72 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 65c | 151.36$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked No | 63c | 133.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 30c | 132.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 22c | 132.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…cd66backed No | 75c | 132.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa303…a674backed No | 75c | 132.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 29c | 121.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.25 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 25c | 114.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…55d9backed No | 72c | 110.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…86f9backed No | 79c | 101.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…3baabacked Yes | 26c | 97.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +288.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed Yes | 48c | 95.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 26c | 91.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 51c | 90.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7c…0440backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…b99fbacked No | 77c | 79.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 25c | 76.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 19c | 70.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 37c | 67.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…882dbacked No | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 25c | 62.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…afe6backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…1f85backed Yes | 45c | 56.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 58c | 55.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 26c | 54.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc28e…084fbacked Yes | 49c | 50.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…cf68backed No | 54c | 46.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…3c24backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…a9a0backed No | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8607…2ccdbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 56c | 29.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 67c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…ce47backed No | 77c | 24.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…a548backed No | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?this page
- Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in September?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in September?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?Yes won
- Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September?No won
- Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.