TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,070

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,816 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4273…19d8backed Yes2c7,876$177 inLost-$1773716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes1c5,570$41 inLost-$41.3426835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes1c2,821$38 inLost-$37.6425311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dda…649cbacked Yes1c2,185$30 inLost-$303821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,170$35 inLost-$34.9713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes6c1,746$105 inLost-$104.7680%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7939…03d0backed Yes10c1,496$150 inLost-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9b…b23ebacked Yes2c1,308$30 inLost-$29.67560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+141.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3d…a73fbacked Yes2c1,094$26 inLost-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes3c897.71$29 inLost-$28.7560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick27cpaid+84.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c825.78$21 inLost-$21.315327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…67f3backed Yes5c682.8$34 inLost-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1318…df41backed Yes4c626.95$24 inLost-$23.87425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes6c521$32 inLost-$32.452231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6380…e74fbacked Yes6c518$29 inLost-$28.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes2c500$12 inLost-$11.931931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes3c500$14 inLost-$143253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes5c490$25 inLost-$24.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes5c460.88$24 inLost-$243324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes3c417.48$12 inLost-$12.369518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes3c400$11 inLost-$10.7837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes11c380$40 inLost-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes9c240$21 inLost-$21.0535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.