TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa815…a3c3backed No57c7,864$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,461.0460%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes26c3,052$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,249.469138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No11c2,907$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.4825311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes70c2,682$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.455422.2%12 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes33c2,400$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes69c2,329$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.232025%5 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No30c2,232$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.743354.5%18 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes56c1,818$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.75527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes17c1,353$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.061428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked No7c999.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes36c839.88$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.88771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No77c781.78$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.553324.2%8 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d685backed No50c741.73$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes45c692.08$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.764022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c588.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.575327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d0…4637backed No51c550$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No47c503.31$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23814456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c500$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes22c492.76$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3849326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c405.86$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3320026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes78c400$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No16c362.47$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.15175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-85.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes44c350$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.54953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No53c298$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.31338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes71c293.02$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No70c280.2$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1979734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes15c278.61$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9612937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No75c277.91$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.822259.1%13 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes25c270$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.23652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No73c266.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.581560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed Yes65c258.13$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No9c229.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes38c217.19$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.31225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes69c201.46$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.71414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No48c199.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.385438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed Yes71c197.85$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.032680.8%21 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x919e…d915backed Yes54c187.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.62015%3 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No71c185.03$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed Yes25c176.8$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.412853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes69c176.36$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.812941.4%12 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce3f…67c9backed Yes35c172$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.393145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes65c165$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.881070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+194.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed Yes66c150.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.392774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.1wins+0.19per pick55cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes24c150$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+78.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x404e…a0d3backed No58c145.11$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.26450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51aa…10dabacked Yes32c140.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ad1…68fabacked No75c132.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No50c129.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x90d5…af62backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No28c124.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1717122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No46c120.2$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.831735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No78c110$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.62157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No11c109.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed No62c105$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.453745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c101.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0641736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c9…96afbacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$881353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed Yes57c96.5$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.182378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cd0…f582backed Yes27c95.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.72825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b1…7dc3backed No41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes28c83.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0026…aef7backed Yes42c83.53$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked No30c83.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee4…481fbacked No42c82.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.63825%2 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-48.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd49e…4808backed No63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3086…fb7ebacked No43c74.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc935…61acbacked No42c70.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes78c58.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.952556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes44c56.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.841250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62d5…78d1backed Yes73c50.74$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.863246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2516…58b3backed Yes30c49.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed No26c48.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.732623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes34c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7df…62efbacked No28c44.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.361233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes32c44.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.179341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5c2…1bbebacked No70c42.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No75c42.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.968652.3%45 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61ee…cf68backed No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed No58c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.25757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb21e…99bbbacked No72c34.72$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes40c33.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.692138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes49c32.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x471a…e242backed Yes65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes40c26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.63743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked No42c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No49c25.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.38641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5065…fdbbbacked No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+56.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed Yes55c23.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.645461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0013…7684backed Yes47c21.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+75.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed Yes72c18.02$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b37…4e2dbacked No76c17.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked No71c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.652454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.