TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc178…35b3backed No3c11,538$300 inLost-$299.991782.4%14 W · 3 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick38cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes8c5,509$429 inWon+$5,080.469138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No3c4,444$120 inLost-$119.992441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+203.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes5c2,315$111 inWon+$2,203.914121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes9c545.68$50 inWon+$495.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c450.96$173 inLost-$173.2639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No69c400$276 inLost-$2762650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes8c360.46$27 inWon+$333.4125528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes5c263.89$14 inWon+$249.891070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+194.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked No76c200$152 inLost-$151.61931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c181.53$10 inWon+$171.389518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes25c100.56$25 inWon+$75.5611322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52f6…a3f4backed No76c77$58 inLost-$58.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon+$37.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes35c42.85$15 inWon+$27.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+66.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.