TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88d4…ffb3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+126.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$395.3
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+177.8%+$384
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$258Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.4%+$238.18
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+168.7%+$674.98
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$427.26
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+1,434.7%+$1,434.7
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,459Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,459.14
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$92.49
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,099.82
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$136
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$97.47
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+2,506.7%+$453.84
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$97.39
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+180.8%+$361.54
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$92
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+152.2%+$152.19
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$547Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+184.4%+$1,008.98
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$536Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$536.31
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$5,970Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$5,970.2
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,878Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+47.6%+$1,844.87
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10,736Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10,735.67
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$940Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$940
Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,026Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+37.1%+$380.42
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16,121Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$9,102.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Merida Open Akron: Zeynep Sonmez vs Cristina Bucsabacked Cristina Bucsa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+100%+$260
Merida Open Akron: Emiliana Arango vs Marie Bouzkovabacked Arango · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$70
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Swedenbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,909Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+42.9%+$818.33
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Swedenbacked Sweden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,060Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$1,060.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,494Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$1,173.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $117K in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,998Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,997.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$498.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA TODAY (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.