TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,748

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,492 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5493…58b9backed No50c8,544$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,310.17771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf82a…d221backed Yes1c8,012$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.44190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes61c4,916$3,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,005.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes11c3,969$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes4c3,503$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes41c3,339$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.2415029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No64c3,285$2,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.945563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e5…4a8ebacked Yes61c3,019$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes63c2,503$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.47360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes48c2,389$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1584119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes25c2,277$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.7411839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes26c2,073$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54014456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes18c1,893$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.99120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4612…c279backed Yes11c1,812$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.741330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c93…6df6backed Yes54c1,800$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c1,785$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.5326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes62c1,784$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.7111040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No47c1,644$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.29962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No47c1,537$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.0623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes22c1,484$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No67c1,473$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes47c1,424$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.6413429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed No65c1,387$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.182548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c1,324$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9125311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…a275backed Yes49c1,321$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No47c1,316$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.726647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c1,269$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.941432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…6508backed Yes45c1,269$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.86475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfe…5e39backed Yes51c1,266$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+26.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f67…406cbacked Yes44c1,266$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x183b…54f0backed Yes52c1,256$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+76.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x282f…bea9backed Yes58c1,254$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.99560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+114.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca4…c1b0backed Yes48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+139.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0454…65d9backed Yes46c1,250$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No78c1,192$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.24580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Yes21c1,171$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes9c1,153$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.331074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes57c1,127$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.0814355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No57c1,116$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc87f…9c0cbacked No68c1,028$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No46c1,027$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.797548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d2…1feebacked Yes60c1,005$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5981127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed No45c999$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.453262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes29c991.01$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.0635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes9c977.6$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.42510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96d3…df67backed No44c964.31$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.311861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No38c956.6$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.791060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddf…004fbacked No61c920.06$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+190.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc685…752dbacked No65c912$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid+14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d7f…4fe8backed No60c883.13$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+99.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes22c872$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c849.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.88541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes57c839.99$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.2840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes32c819.06$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No55c810.99$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.413743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c804.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.31302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c801.09$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.09611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes43c798.8$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.412547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No47c777$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.8114750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes22c726$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No69c713.39$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.393560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes9c700$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes28c651.66$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7317232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes43c622$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd7…57a6backed Yes30c610$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c2…424abacked No70c610$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked No79c578$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+114.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked No78c557$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9378…7f24backed Yes55c556.47$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No57c551$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No49c544.54$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.117843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No37c515.38$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.554447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes21c509$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes56c470$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2130%0 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No53c443$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes8c434.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.849115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c08…eba9backed No45c432$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.247949.4%39 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes22c429$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.38333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc9…8ea4backed Yes7c427.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes50c424.47$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.733438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No46c424.29$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.953865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No48c414.75$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.9315855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No66c411.4$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.265461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed No49c409.59$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.592055%11 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No78c400.79$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.257243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6348…ef19backed No67c400$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+101.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes43c387$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc4…e1d8backed No51c373.85$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.851963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No67c360$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.614150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes47c355$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes47c335$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No78c332$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+142.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes43c331$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No79c328$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a8…8edebacked No68c324.91$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.313545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed No79c321$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes71c319.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.191643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…d22abacked No47c319.91$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x097e…b868backed Yes30c318$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c312.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.565327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.