TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2bef…1e38

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
163
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 61 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.47
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.19
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.01
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$94.4
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.42
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.38
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$334.62
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$395.38
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.76
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.08
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$19.55
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$97.92
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.36
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+221.4%+$663.39
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$273.42
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish with the best record in the NBA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.86
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+100.4%+$227.45
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.44
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.15
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$691Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$415.87
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$113.62
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.46
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.08
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+47.1%+$19.66
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+48.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.96
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+165.9%+$286.99
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$75.48
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$77.76
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.41
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$165.12
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$685Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+41.7%+$285.7
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$33.58
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$61.75
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$449.82
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$431.58
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+92.3%+$330.72
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$91.08
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$18.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+212.5%+$46.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$217.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$19.52
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$398Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+122.2%+$486.75
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$109.04
Will Donald Trump say "real peace" or "legitimate peace" during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+88.7%+$337.46
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$158.04
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$301.77
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.53
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$631Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$631.19
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$234.84
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will George Clooney be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30.72
Will Cynthia Erivo be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$99.9
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+96.1%+$143.57
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.8
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38.9%+$42
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$374.88
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$334.96
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$100
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$166.88
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+29.9%+$111.32
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$559.68
Will "Cover-Up" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$104.04
All 18 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.47
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$221.91
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$365.85
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$30.36
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+28.2%+$3.08
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$272.22
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$288.12
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$90.93
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$206.93
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+101.4%+$142.98
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$513Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+198.9%+$1,020.08
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+354.5%+$347.88
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$112.2
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$343Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$114.25
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$18.24
All 15 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$80.44
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$294.79
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.84
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$370.21
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$328.32
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.06
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$432.37
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$71.81
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$96
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$206.36
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+234.9%+$846.62
Google Gemini Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+38.9%+$160.16
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.67
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+300%+$469.5
Will Amazon acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.71
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+67.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will La Santa be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13.3
Will the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$30.94
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+81.8%+$259.2
Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+81.8%+$324.45
Will John Harbaugh join the New York Giants prior to April 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+81.8%+$72.45
Will Mike Tomlin be fired by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+525%+$152.04
Will the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+233.3%+$239.4
Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$58.05
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$19.53
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$324.9
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$117.8
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$102.52
Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$246.08
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$530.41
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$160.58
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$282.95
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.27
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-77.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+100.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+182.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+163.2%+$143.22
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$70.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+614.3%+$809.26
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$12.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$432.3
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$505Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$505.16
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebelsbacked Ole Miss Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$124.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Indiana and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+35.1%+$161.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+28.2%+$99.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dundee United FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$86.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5)backed Al Najmah Saudi Club · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$111.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Dana White" during Strickland vs. Hernandez?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$453Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$452.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.