NFL · resolved market
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc54a185042c48ea8da7c1a4b5fcb1e3135ddfc99f14c0edb392e4439f03ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 52c | 6,316$3,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,259.45 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked No | 48c | 3,980$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,069.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked No | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked No | 55c | 992$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 45c | 890$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 45c | 799$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 55c | 791$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed No | 55c | 767$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fd…f0b5backed No | 55c | 668$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 45c | 630$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 55c | 576$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 45c | 571$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.95 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 45c | 424$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 45c | 403$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 51c | 399.11$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Yes | 50c | 398.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 55c | 397$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 55c | 390$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 45c | 390$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 40c | 371.36$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.12 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 45c | 369$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 47c | 220.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 45c | 161$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 52c | 135$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…79adbacked Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 59c | 97.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…ded4backed Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…2b74backed No | 48c | 46.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…641fbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.7wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 51c | 38.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 33.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…02edbacked Yes | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fe…73a4backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 51c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…e808backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?Yes won
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.