NFL · resolved market
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d0fdfb1aec27f5dc6a49e67eb3be11f05f3d5cbbbccfafaf8936b26ea6b339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f1b…262abacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 17c | 761$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 17c | 744$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 24c | 715.64$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.75 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 17c | 580$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 17c | 519$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 17c | 503$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 17c | 476$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes | 18c | 433$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 17c | 322$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 17c | 296$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 17c | 259$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 25c | 216$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 17c | 186$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 17c | 163$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 17c | 158$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 17c | 143$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 17c | 109$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Yes | 25c | 84.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 17c | 71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d22…d039backed Yes | 25c | 51.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?Yes won
- Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.