TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa26f…4b98

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
170
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Premier League, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 65 out of 100; worst UFC at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT4252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$7.86
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$16.52
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$49.3
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+194.1%+$95.7
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$42.14
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+156.4%+$30.5
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.52
Spread: Pistons (-7.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11.55
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+28.2%+$8.46
Spread: Suns (-9.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Spread: Suns (-8.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+83.8%+$25.14
Spread: 76ers (-7.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Pacers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+38.9%+$11.67
Clippers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.76
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+81.8%+$24.55
Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+100%+$30
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST2759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Providence Friars vs. Marquette Golden Eaglesbacked Providence Friars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Maine Black Bears: O/U 130.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 143.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+104.1%+$31.22
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Memphis Tigers: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wavebacked Tulane Green Wave · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$36.8
Spread: South Florida Bulls (-7.5)backed Wichita State Shockers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$29.35
American Eagles vs. Army Black Knights: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
American Eagles vs. Army Black Knights: O/U 146.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Spread: Maryland Terrapins (-1.5)backed Penn State Nittany Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Maryland Terrapinsbacked Penn State Nittany Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma State Cowboysbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+63.9%+$19.18
Portland Pilots vs. Loyola Marymount Lions: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Campbell Fighting Camels vs. UNCW Seahawks: O/U 149.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 165.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+92.3%+$27.69
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked Wake Forest Demon Deacons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 146.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+100%+$30
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 151.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Duke Blue Devils vs. Stanford Cardinal: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+88.7%+$26.6
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 153.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-12.5)backed South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+100%+$30
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Auburn Tigers: O/U 150.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Michigan State Spartans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 145.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Michigan State Spartans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+63.9%+$19.18
Michigan State Spartans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 143.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Michigan State Spartans vs. Washington Huskies: O/U 144.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Ottawa Senators make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.14
Will the Seattle Kraken make the NHL Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$15.63
Will the Florida Panthers make the NHL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.41
Islanders vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Devils vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Capitals vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+49.3%+$10.06
Blues vs. Oilersbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Senators vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+85.2%+$16.1
Lightning vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Lightning vs. Stars: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Kings vs. Ducksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Oilers vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+88.7%+$26.6
Predators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+347.4%+$75.65
Canadiens vs. Senatorsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+108.3%+$32.5
Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+112.8%+$33.83
Panthers vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Hurricanes vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.96
All 17 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$47.79
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$43.83
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$21.18
Will the Denver Broncos be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$39.55
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+104.8%+$38.07
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$39.49
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$35.32
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+185.7%+$55.71
Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+132.6%+$39.77
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+400%+$144
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.4
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+40.7%+$15.9
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.46
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+376.2%+$46.42
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+35.4%+$7.06
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$18.67
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$13.87
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST9100%9 W · 0 L+4.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+124.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+143.9%+$43.17
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+96.1%+$28.82
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+108.1%+$21.15
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+376.2%+$75.24
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+143.9%+$25.31
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+37%+$4.79
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+63.9%+$8.63
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+72.4%+$14.41
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+44.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$79.76
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+72.5%+$32.46
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+38.6%+$6.88
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+55.3%+$57.73
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+38.9%+$11.67
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+65.3%+$22.6
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+125.4%+$15.65
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+78.6%+$23.57
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+29.9%+$5.15
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+52.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+84.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$29.18
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+100%+$30
All 3 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-55.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+143.9%+$43.17
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+125.2%+$45.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+61.2%+$17.11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2026-01-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$21.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.