TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga Swiatek

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rybakinaof Rybakina, Swiatek
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,087,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,318,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,087,904 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 394 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5877…d894backed Rybakina56c100,563$56,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,303.4411633.6%39 W · 77 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Rybakina55c90,241$49,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,608.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Swiatek45c85,173$38,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,327.8511242.9%48 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Swiatek4c75,518$2,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,893.5280938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Rybakina56c55,336$30,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,348.0110541%43 W · 62 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Swiatek44c40,000$17,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,6006552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Swiatek7c38,444$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.971,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…13acbacked Swiatek44c38,067$16,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,749.652360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Swiatek2c31,780$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.391,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Swiatek47c23,515$11,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,115.4625428%71 W · 183 L-13.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4eae…5095backed Swiatek48c21,048$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Rybakina55c20,848$11,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,399.913046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Swiatek44c20,000$8,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,80015832.9%52 W · 106 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Rybakina56c17,857$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,857.144560%27 W · 18 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Swiatek45c17,778$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d9…651bbacked Rybakina66c17,745$11,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,066.844654.3%25 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Swiatek21c13,962$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,931.942,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Swiatek44c12,500$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50015048%72 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Swiatek44c12,000$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,279.963537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e73…c4ecbacked Rybakina53c11,321$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,320.75450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Swiatek44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4005955.9%33 W · 26 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Swiatek45c9,984$4,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,486.4676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x681d…3fa1backed Swiatek2c8,436$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.721618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick14cpaid-63.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Swiatek45c8,200$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.9912147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Swiatek13c8,153$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.352,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Rybakina52c7,894$4,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.063046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Rybakina55c7,306$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,305.366549.2%32 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Swiatek10c6,393$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.795822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Swiatek40c6,000$2,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,43016825%42 W · 126 L-14.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Swiatek26c5,579$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.318,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Swiatek3c5,451$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.986,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Swiatek44c5,322$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.884266.7%28 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rybakina52c5,103$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,449.239742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Swiatek44c5,066$2,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,229.2324846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Swiatek18c5,043$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.5545737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Swiatek44c5,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Rybakina53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,35043051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Rybakina53c4,257$2,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.7776146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Swiatek45c4,031$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.822242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Swiatek33c4,000$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31022737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Rybakina53c4,000$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.9411941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Rybakina56c3,747$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.87771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Swiatek47c3,500$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64644360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Swiatek17c3,301$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525242.3%22 W · 30 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Rybakina55c3,290$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.3120261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Swiatek45c3,190$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.6828141.6%117 W · 164 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Swiatek45c3,073$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.915949.2%29 W · 30 L+6.4wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e52…cc7ebacked Rybakina56c3,010$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Rybakina56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Swiatek47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4108640.7%35 W · 51 L+8.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+60.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c14…7bc1backed Swiatek44c2,778$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Rybakina55c2,762$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Rybakina51c2,729$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.2619846%91 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Swiatek9c2,700$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24122723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e0…45a6backed Swiatek19c2,536$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Rybakina55c2,533$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.3110440.4%42 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Swiatek44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Rybakina53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17537540.8%153 W · 222 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f58…6f3cbacked Swiatek45c2,424$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0911241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Swiatek47c2,347$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.9910043%43 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Swiatek45c2,282$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.9941645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb828…2cabbacked Swiatek44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Swiatek45c2,222$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032637.4%122 W · 204 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Swiatek44c2,200$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9784250%21 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Rybakina57c2,132$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.5835247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Rybakina54c2,113$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.8624448.8%119 W · 125 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Rybakina76c2,103$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.0111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Swiatek45c2,009$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.939242.4%39 W · 53 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Rybakina56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8804560%27 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Swiatek45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9009741.2%40 W · 57 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Swiatek58c2,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.9930645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Swiatek48c1,938$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.931,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Rybakina59c1,913$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.611,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked Rybakina54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.927047.1%33 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Swiatek25c1,611$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Swiatek30c1,550$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.042,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Swiatek45c1,480$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.6543042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Swiatek45c1,336$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.3262545.4%284 W · 341 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Swiatek36c1,300$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4688825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7434…2ff4backed Swiatek39c1,265$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.29812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Swiatek44c1,245$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.887251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed Swiatek22c1,235$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2742657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick45cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Rybakina53c1,226$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.1575748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Swiatek23c1,222$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28498240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Swiatek4c1,204$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.162,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Rybakina54c1,204$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.73647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Swiatek44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa1…70c5backed Swiatek44c1,120$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.82548%12 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Swiatek36c1,090$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.41822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Swiatek47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Swiatek50c1,050$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.911844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Rybakina52c1,041$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.689245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rybakina53c1,016$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.371,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Swiatek45c1,002$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Swiatek36c1,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Swiatek6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Swiatek42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42014940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed Swiatek45c991.11$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4461241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa9a…099fbacked Swiatek4c950$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384427.3%12 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Rybakina53c949.95$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.9814663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.