Tennis · resolved market
Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556806f442f22fe62d81ee987c6fc724720a6634564e57998620384b3ac59ab6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Over | 52c | 661.73$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 444.67$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.86 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 367.3$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x646e…294dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Over | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Over | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked Under | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Under | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 48c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga SwiatekRybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs SwiatekRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.