Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1058928af172185a11dad9af6daa0cbc1f7467e6113180d4b3a3bf9ded3183dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Rybakina | 54c | 787.27$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.27 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Swiatek | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 347 | 45.2%157 W · 190 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Swiatek | 45c | 287.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.27 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rybakina | 54c | 222.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Swiatek | 47c | 148$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Rybakina | 70c | 143.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Swiatek | 47c | 131$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Swiatek | 46c | 123$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Swiatek | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Swiatek | 34c | 93.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Swiatek | 38c | 78.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…8d9bbacked Rybakina | 69c | 72.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 319 | 41.4%132 W · 187 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Swiatek | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Swiatek | 47c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rybakina | 56c | 53.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Swiatek | 46c | 47.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Swiatek | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Swiatek | 44c | 34.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Rybakina | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Rybakina | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Rybakina | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Rybakina | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Rybakina | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Rybakina | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Rybakina | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Swiatek | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Rybakina | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Rybakina | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Rybakina | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Swiatek | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked Swiatek | 46c | 23.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Rybakina | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed Rybakina | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Rybakina | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Swiatek | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Rybakina | 64c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Rybakina | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rybakina | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Rybakina | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Rybakina | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Swiatekthis page
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga SwiatekRybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.