Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11088b7fc2d6f381a1e1318c06d86534031386708eed217700aaa30daabcc48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Rybakina, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x046c…2a9cbacked Rybakina | 37c | 1,588$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.89 | 352 | 47.2%166 W · 186 L | -23.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Swiatek | 64c | 888.01$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 65c | 816.08$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.37 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Swiatek | 27c | 796.79$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.45 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Rybakina | 43c | 547.92$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Rybakina | 39c | 508.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.47 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…8bb4backed Swiatek | 69c | 436.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Swiatek | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Rybakina | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Swiatek | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Swiatek | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Rybakina | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Swiatek | 22c | 68.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…5623backed Swiatek | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Swiatek | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…4b30backed Swiatek | 66c | 56.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rybakina | 33c | 46.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rybakina | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7d…c5e1backed Swiatek | 67c | 25.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)this page
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga SwiatekRybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs SwiatekRybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.