Tennis · resolved market
Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bda9ee17c6d29a263ec55f175b1019fe5b32c2191d0142b3e385ec52b027751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71a9…06b1backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 7,700$4,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,311 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…a161backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 7,700$3,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,311 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 1,322$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.52 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 825.56$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 647.56$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 328$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…980bbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 178$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 143$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 63c | 93.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 73.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…7670backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…6124backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…cfbebacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 50.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…3bd9backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…8275backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Under 2.5 | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Under 2.5 | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over 2.5 | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Iga SwiatekRybakina won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs SwiatekRybakina won
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Swiatek (+1.5)Rybakina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.