TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Canadiensof Canadiens, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,785,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,833,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785,655 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Senators53c500,133$265,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265,558.9120354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Canadiens47c400,000$188,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212,0003053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Senators53c377,197$199,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199,513.9710753.3%57 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Canadiens47c300,000$141,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159,00010840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Senators52c193,344$100,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,539.0856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Senators65c152,815$98,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98,835.431,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Canadiens48c129,166$62,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,166.329548.4%46 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb0…d8b6backed Canadiens48c105,652$50,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,151.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b4…a278backed Senators53c95,389$50,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,556.1110349.5%51 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Senators52c75,737$39,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,379.781,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Canadiens23c60,000$13,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,199.9430944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Canadiens56c56,889$31,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,248.3232744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens46c55,503$25,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,710.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Canadiens46c43,473$19,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,475.438748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ea…bb01backed Canadiens48c31,250$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,2503435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Canadiens23c25,091$5,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,320.0211745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens47c21,764$10,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,501.231,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Canadiens48c21,332$10,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,064.681,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c7…4078backed Senators21c13,507$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,790.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Canadiens47c13,486$6,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,105.9639047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Canadiens48c12,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,5003262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+23.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Canadiens47c11,169$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.572231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Senators52c11,047$5,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,744.2115953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens47c11,000$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,80033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Senators23c10,643$2,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,428.962,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5836…4d03backed Canadiens48c10,417$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,416.678247.6%39 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Senators62c10,370$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Canadiens47c10,360$4,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,490.8226849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Canadiens62c10,082$6,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,851.311950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Canadiens48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20014940.9%61 W · 88 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Canadiens48c9,768$4,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,127.0452050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Senators53c9,434$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccdb…ffa9backed Canadiens47c8,638$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,578.32846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canadiens47c8,000$3,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,24061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Senators39c7,768$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.8843742.3%185 W · 252 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Canadiens47c7,190$3,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.4928251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Canadiens23c7,007$1,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,395.357162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Canadiens47c6,501$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.451,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…5950backed Senators78c6,191$4,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,822.496157.4%35 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Canadiens47c6,000$2,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,18012245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Canadiens47c6,000$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,169.9913049.2%64 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Canadiens74c5,110$3,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.335853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Canadiens47c5,024$2,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,662.7224654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Canadiens46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Canadiens47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Canadiens47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Canadiens38c5,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,11033345.6%152 W · 181 L+0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Senators52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.991,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…2a44backed Canadiens48c4,638$2,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.825152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Senators52c4,600$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,391.9826058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Canadiens47c4,187$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.1445955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Canadiens31c4,110$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,822.6417057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Canadiens47c3,784$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.052,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Senators53c3,500$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85568449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Canadiens48c3,257$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.761,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Canadiens21c3,184$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.161,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Canadiens48c3,083$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,618.3160337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f88…2a93backed Canadiens49c3,065$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Canadiens48c3,042$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.6726946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens47c3,015$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.71,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Canadiens47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5908134.6%28 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Canadiens52c2,825$1,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.1575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200c…58eabacked Canadiens48c2,542$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,321.673764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Canadiens53c2,524$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.9223047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Canadiens47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32523751.5%122 W · 115 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Canadiens47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…b5eabacked Canadiens48c2,393$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.3211445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Canadiens72c2,370$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.3985464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Canadiens67c2,247$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Senators53c2,166$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,153.5289249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Canadiens47c2,164$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.042564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Canadiens57c2,109$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.5558467.5%394 W · 190 L+93.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+32.9%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Canadiens46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08010848.1%52 W · 56 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Canadiens47c2,000$943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.981,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Canadiens47c1,989$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.9358352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Canadiens48c1,960$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.214848%71 W · 77 L-0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Canadiens47c1,958$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.7484953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Canadiens47c1,862$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.8683149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Senators43c1,827$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.499638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Canadiens48c1,789$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.1841248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Senators2c1,780$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.892174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Senators52c1,760$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.651,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Canadiens48c1,700$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8844346.5%20 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Senators53c1,600$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.9863249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Senators5c1,600$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.221076.5%7 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293f…3e52backed Canadiens48c1,563$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.55736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Canadiens2c1,555$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.351458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Canadiens48c1,515$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.311,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Canadiens57c1,503$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.89545.3%43 W · 52 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Canadiens48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78025552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e0…45a6backed Canadiens23c1,500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1551100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Canadiens12c1,431$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.0789636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Canadiens48c1,400$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2801…cc04backed Senators53c1,400$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Canadiens47c1,300$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.6138445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Canadiens47c1,300$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68943548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Senators78c1,204$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.917057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Canadiens47c1,152$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.5475155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Canadiens47c1,100$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58345749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Canadiens54c1,054$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.857157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.