NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb997f1167ff4a5fe38aea7808015a386c18d178641d9237e4a67ef8f219ada2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 42c | 61,648$25,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,756.09 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Under | 58c | 45,695$26,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,471.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 58c | 20,472$11,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,868.83 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Under | 61c | 3,513$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.59 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 43c | 3,494$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 39c | 2,883$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.91 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 39c | 2,132$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.99 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 6c | 2,083$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.98 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 6c | 1,666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…aaf9backed Under | 61c | 1,639$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Under | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Over | 42c | 459.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.79 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 40c | 350.47$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Under | 58c | 249.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f79…c16cbacked Under | 61c | 200.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.74 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 39c | 152.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 43c | 151$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…4ddbbacked Over | 43c | 151$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed Under | 59c | 102.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Under | 59c | 101$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 56c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…8194backed Over | 14c | 81.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…57f1backed Under | 58c | 70.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 60c | 66.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed Over | 45c | 60.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Over | 44c | 58.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…0f6bbacked Over | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe8…32dfbacked Under | 61c | 35.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 41c | 31.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Over | 44c | 25.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…3401backed Under | 57c | 24.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-0.5)Broncos won
- Bills Team Total: O/U 13.5Over won
- Bills vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bo Nix: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Dalton Kincaid: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- James Cook: Receiving Yards O/U 97.5Under won
- James Cook: Rushing Yards O/U 76.5Over won
- Josh Allen: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 36.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.