NFL · resolved market
Spread: Broncos (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a695dcdfc7404bff0184f459662f3d95518afa4156318473067c901577c0639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, Bills
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $582,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $611,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Bills | 51c | 165,964$84,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,247.84 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Broncos | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,999.97 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Bills | 50c | 83,970$41,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,984.93 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Broncos | 50c | 83,760$41,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,880 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills | 50c | 80,000$40,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,000 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Broncos | 50c | 40,000$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,000 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Broncos | 49c | 39,830$19,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,313.44 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos | 50c | 29,123$14,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,561.65 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos | 55c | 27,221$14,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,261.05 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bills | 22c | 23,153$5,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,093.7 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bills | 44c | 22,402$9,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,858.04 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf40…87debacked Bills | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…079fbacked Bills | 51c | 19,020$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,700 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos | 50c | 14,284$7,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,113.32 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos | 50c | 11,868$5,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,934 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bills | 49c | 11,763$5,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.82 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Broncos | 50c | 11,199$5,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,606.61 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Broncos | 50c | 10,574$5,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,265.44 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…1556backed Bills | 50c | 10,253$5,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,126.42 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Broncos | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Broncos | 49c | 7,501$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,805.01 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Broncos | 50c | 6,845$3,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,455.8 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bills | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Broncos | 51c | 5,289$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.59 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…72f0backed Bills | 50c | 5,107$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Broncos | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.93 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff2…ec46backed Broncos | 50c | 4,710$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,355 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos | 50c | 4,366$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,183 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Bills | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Broncos | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…0e64backed Bills | 51c | 3,500$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Bills | 50c | 3,110$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.06 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Bills | 50c | 3,100$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Broncos | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bills | 29c | 2,526$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.45 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos | 48c | 2,266$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.41 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Broncos | 49c | 2,235$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…ca79backed Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 38cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Broncos | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bills | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Bills | 52c | 1,764$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Broncos | 45c | 1,746$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.77 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb9…e983backed Bills | 51c | 1,686$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Bills | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bills | 50c | 1,573$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.5 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…eeefbacked Broncos | 61c | 1,522$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…1a00backed Bills | 50c | 1,518$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 50c | 1,355$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.14 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Broncos | 15c | 1,354$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.56 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Broncos | 50c | 1,246$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.13 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…7e61backed Bills | 51c | 1,174$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…a4fdbacked Bills | 51c | 1,141$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…3962backed Bills | 50c | 1,085$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.05 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…2b2ebacked Broncos | 48c | 1,016$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…aedfbacked Broncos | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bills | 66c | 991.79$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.49 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Bills | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…52bfbacked Bills | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e44…686abacked Bills | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bills | 50c | 928.57$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bills | 52c | 913$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.76 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…4057backed Bills | 51c | 900$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Bills | 50c | 872$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Broncos | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Bills | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Broncos | 39c | 750.3$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.48 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Broncos | 55c | 699.39$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Bills | 52c | 694.12$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Bills | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf068…6184backed Broncos | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b67…e0abbacked Bills | 46c | 537.92$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Bills | 50c | 499.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Bills | 60c | 485.25$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Bills | 51c | 444$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…8d18backed Broncos | 51c | 431.37$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Broncos | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +14.3wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Broncos | 50c | 420$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…d831backed Broncos | 49c | 408.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.17 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Broncos | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Bills | 50c | 399.84$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Broncos | 50c | 395.86$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.93 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Broncos | 50c | 394.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Bills | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…eb0cbacked Broncos | 51c | 340$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Broncos | 50c | 330$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Bills | 51c | 320.35$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Broncos | 50c | 317.08$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.54 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e36…1195backed Bills | 51c | 303.92$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Bills | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Bills | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…18dfbacked Broncos | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Bills | 27c | 300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa003…e397backed Broncos | 50c | 289.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe890…0d90backed Bills | 51c | 288.24$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills | 65c | 280.07$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-0.5)Broncos won
- Bills Team Total: O/U 13.5Over won
- Bills vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bo Nix: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Dalton Kincaid: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- James Cook: Receiving Yards O/U 97.5Under won
- James Cook: Rushing Yards O/U 76.5Over won
- Josh Allen: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 36.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.