TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Broncos (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Broncos, Bills
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$582,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$611,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $582,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c81…fce3backed Bills51c165,964$84,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,247.845250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Broncos49c100,000$49,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,999.971662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Bills50c83,970$41,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,984.934955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Broncos50c83,760$41,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,8805648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills50c80,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,00012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Broncos50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,0006764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Broncos49c39,830$19,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,313.441968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos50c29,123$14,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,561.6524957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos55c27,221$14,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,261.0512055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bills22c23,153$5,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.716955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bills44c22,402$9,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,858.0473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf40…87debacked Bills50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Bills51c19,020$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos50c14,284$7,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,113.3220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Broncos50c11,868$5,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,93456852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bills49c11,763$5,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,763.8231240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Broncos50c11,199$5,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,606.613348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Broncos50c10,574$5,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,265.445149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Bills50c10,253$5,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,126.422433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Broncos50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Broncos49c7,501$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,805.011,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Broncos50c6,845$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bills50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00037350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Broncos51c5,289$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,591.59988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.36per pick53cpaid+69.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb009…72f0backed Bills50c5,107$2,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+218.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Broncos51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,45014438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Broncos49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9351352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcff2…ec46backed Broncos50c4,710$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3552100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos50c4,366$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,18319152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Bills51c3,922$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Broncos51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.573844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3484…0e64backed Bills51c3,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,785425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Bills50c3,110$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.064761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Bills50c3,100$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55013435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Broncos50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Bills29c2,526$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.4510858.3%63 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos48c2,266$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,178.415152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Broncos49c2,235$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Bills50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005754.4%31 W · 26 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bills50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Bills50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.30per pick38cpaid-83.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Broncos49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02022446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Bills51c1,961$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1895…efd2backed Bills52c1,764$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9175234.6%18 W · 34 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Broncos45c1,746$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.7735648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb9…e983backed Bills51c1,686$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8603231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Bills50c1,600$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80011759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bills50c1,573$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.526649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…eeefbacked Broncos61c1,522$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.39977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+45.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed Bills50c1,518$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bills50c1,355$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.1465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Broncos15c1,354$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.567435.1%26 W · 48 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+57.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Broncos50c1,246$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.137554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Bills51c1,174$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…a4fdbacked Bills51c1,141$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5821136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8eb…3962backed Bills50c1,085$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Broncos48c1,016$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.662955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Broncos50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bills66c991.79$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.4960049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Bills51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013641.2%56 W · 80 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc93e…52bfbacked Bills51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e44…686abacked Bills50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bills50c928.57$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.292657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bills52c913$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.7613448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Bills51c900$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4593834.2%13 W · 25 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Bills50c872$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4366446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Broncos50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40013959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Bills50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40019361.7%119 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Broncos39c750.3$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.486124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Broncos55c699.39$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.112744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47cb…dfdabacked Bills52c694.12$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3585523.6%13 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Bills51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3068056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Broncos51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.243366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b67…e0abbacked Bills46c537.92$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c39…b7a6backed Bills50c499.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.671625%4 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Bills60c485.25$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.152948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Bills51c444$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.448454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe533…8d18backed Broncos51c431.37$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.374245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Broncos50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21014060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Broncos50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21017656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Broncos49c408.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.175347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Broncos51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19619654.1%106 W · 90 L+15.6wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed Bills50c399.84$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.924934.7%17 W · 32 L-8.3wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-32.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Broncos50c395.86$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.931464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Broncos50c394.84$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.4210555.2%58 W · 47 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf263…e9c1backed Bills51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004344.2%19 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb53c…eb0cbacked Broncos51c340$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Broncos50c330$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16511859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Bills51c320.35$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.3812850%64 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Broncos50c317.08$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5412057.5%69 W · 51 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e36…1195backed Bills51c303.92$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Bills50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019954.8%109 W · 90 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Bills50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x329c…18dfbacked Broncos50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked Bills27c300$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014818.2%27 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa003…e397backed Broncos50c289.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe890…0d90backed Bills51c288.24$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1471050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bills65c280.07$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4483147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.