NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Broncos: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd081f76c0cecf3219b3c2db1c2ca305054fa5c85769bfac8e347b1b9272b5266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Bills, Broncos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Bills | 55c | 1,601$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.01 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Broncos | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.19 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Broncos | 55c | 843.49$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.43 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Bills | 43c | 559.25$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Bills | 2c | 507.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Bills | 49c | 404.85$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Broncos | 18c | 339.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.76 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Broncos | 56c | 312$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Broncos | 55c | 225.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Broncos | 57c | 111.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Bills | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Broncos | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Broncos | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Broncos | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Bills | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Bills | 58c | 29.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…6ababacked Bills | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…1b68backed Broncos | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…cb3bbacked Bills | 39c | 27.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked Bills | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Bills | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Broncos | 53c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-0.5)Broncos won
- Bills Team Total: O/U 13.5Over won
- Bills vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bo Nix: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Dalton Kincaid: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- James Cook: Receiving Yards O/U 97.5Under won
- James Cook: Rushing Yards O/U 76.5Over won
- Josh Allen: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 36.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.