NFL · resolved market
Josh Allen: Anytime Touchdown
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf567e5aa9edf9caeeef0a6ce0d78e51fa154e89dedc6afa81e366343320c3671
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 49c | 1,200$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.1 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed No | 49c | 1,087$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.86 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 55c | 641.1$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.91 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…0f6bbacked Yes | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 39c | 474.1$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.43 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 245$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Yes | 53c | 187.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 46c | 119.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 48c | 97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…a6c2backed Yes | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 46c | 74.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Yes | 54c | 55.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a62…8650backed No | 58c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 47c | 40.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ae…471cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…313cbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…54a2backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…d994backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Josh Allen: Anytime Touchdownthis page
- 1H Spread: Broncos (-0.5)Broncos won
- Bills Team Total: O/U 13.5Over won
- Bills vs. BroncosBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H MoneylineBroncos won
- Bills vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5Over won
- Bo Nix: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Broncos Team Total: O/U 23.5Over won
- Dalton Kincaid: First TouchdownNo Touchdown won
- James Cook: Receiving Yards O/U 97.5Under won
- James Cook: Rushing Yards O/U 76.5Over won
- Josh Allen: Rushing Yards O/U 36.5Over won
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.