TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Broncos

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Broncosof Bills, Broncos
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,391,201
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,785,151

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,391,201 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a55…f9bebacked Bills47c1,662,725$781,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781,480.691428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Broncos53c741,523$393,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348,515.983348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Broncos53c653,085$343,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310,042.487554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Broncos53c648,849$343,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304,958.922025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Broncos53c552,251$292,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259,558.011656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Bills48c370,518$177,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,848.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Broncos54c284,000$153,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130,6401070%7 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Broncos52c274,142$142,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131,588.19650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Bills46c272,124$125,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125,177.154057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Bills47c230,000$108,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,099.891662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills44c221,937$96,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,734.3547348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Broncos52c212,507$109,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,628.585152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Broncos60c182,869$109,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,096.1114349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb67d…aa40backed Bills47c178,407$83,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,599.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Broncos53c176,318$94,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,098.42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bills47c175,000$82,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,2505154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d8a…e842backed Broncos53c142,321$74,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,586.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Broncos56c137,519$77,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,175.9611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills47c134,999$63,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,449.3812944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bills49c129,675$62,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,975.553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos53c115,555$61,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,520.9617454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Bills48c112,571$54,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,0341154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bills43c106,530$46,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,068.6273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Broncos53c102,363$54,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,110.7119553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Bills47c100,000$46,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,499.965453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Broncos76c100,000$75,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,049.8912144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Bills47c99,999$46,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,999.319359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Bills47c96,567$45,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,386.574955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Broncos47c87,345$41,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,073.7312055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2db…aa08backed Bills47c84,000$39,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,480425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Broncos49c82,793$40,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,853.2430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Bills54c81,679$43,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,770.7410026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Bills47c80,333$37,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,756.374143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d76…eb01backed Broncos54c80,013$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,012.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Bills47c74,182$35,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,999.632433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17a8…e61fbacked Bills48c68,224$32,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,742.681154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Broncos61c68,068$41,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,286.0520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166a…e675backed Broncos48c66,984$32,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,887.681050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Bills35c64,500$22,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,683.123548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bills43c64,359$27,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,686.5523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Bills48c62,475$29,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,988.141090%9 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick51cpaid+97.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Broncos52c60,000$31,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,899.9716051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Bills47c58,170$27,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,34018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bills47c57,500$27,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,0252657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Broncos53c56,866$29,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,003.9819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Bills41c56,385$23,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,100.9116860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bills47c52,959$24,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,890.5127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills45c51,530$23,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,154.1247738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Broncos53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,50011146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Bills47c50,000$23,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,50016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Broncos52c50,000$26,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,0003050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Broncos52c49,065$25,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,779.6124957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b0…8bc6backed Bills0c48,510$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Bills73c46,687$34,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,228.763135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Bills48c45,488$21,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,823.172740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Broncos73c44,398$32,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,189.1112748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Bills37c41,120$15,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,220.743040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bills47c40,001$18,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,800.2224652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Broncos52c40,000$20,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,199.9923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1b…530abacked Bills48c38,153$18,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,290.441145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bills41c37,575$15,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,521.8275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Bills47c37,445$17,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,599.012680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Bills47c36,000$16,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,949.9817648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Bills46c35,000$16,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,199.9716226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bills58c34,905$20,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,263.2919645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Broncos51c34,216$17,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,622.8722450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked Broncos53c32,000$16,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,059.92133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Bills51c31,034$15,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,846.49128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-86.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Bills47c30,655$14,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,492.94440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87e5…ff01backed Bills30c30,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bills33c29,870$9,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,835.0520026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0eb…b103backed Bills61c29,736$17,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,992.7940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Broncos62c29,184$18,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,082.11346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Bills56c28,985$16,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,264.71450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Broncos53c25,993$13,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,216.656764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xe76f…1eacbacked Bills49c25,955$12,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,801.52070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+60.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Broncos62c25,380$15,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,673.296459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Broncos56c25,315$14,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,219.587736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Bills37c25,000$9,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,149.963724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Broncos54c24,839$13,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,479.73268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e98…1f51backed Bills47c24,699$11,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,608.363652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bills42c24,553$10,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,373.3127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Bills48c23,736$11,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,349650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37e…13f4backed Bills6c23,634$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Bills47c22,922$10,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,773.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Broncos53c22,113$11,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,393.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Bills46c21,581$10,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,014.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Broncos52c21,094$11,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,090.643256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Broncos51c21,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,20024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Bills47c21,000$9,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,870450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Bills44c20,901$9,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,214.311250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Bills21c20,807$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.13616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Broncos53c20,800$11,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,7762441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f9…f78ebacked Bills41c20,700$8,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,547.445238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Bills49c20,425$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,999.625250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f0f…b44bbacked Bills65c20,313$13,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,222.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bills47c20,237$9,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,461.4235848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Bills48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bills48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bills48c19,905$9,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,559.0739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.