TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$773,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$787,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $773,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over46c487,949$222,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265,229.7912055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa41…a7a1backed Under55c181,755$99,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,965837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8372…5223backed Under54c179,333$96,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,982.6920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Under54c160,000$86,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,400650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7caf…058bbacked Over46c40,641$18,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,052.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over46c40,440$18,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,837.675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Under54c37,379$20,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,110.7416051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Under54c35,555$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,199.716836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Under54c21,074$11,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,369.0220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Under54c17,000$9,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,179.989442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over47c15,064$7,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,983.993348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under54c14,440$7,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,740.0624056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over46c12,100$5,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,53419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over46c12,075$5,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,520.4156852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Over45c11,111$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.057655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,40013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over46c8,813$4,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,801.261,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under33c8,530$2,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,854.7622142.1%93 W · 128 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4940…05cbbacked Over46c7,500$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0506100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+100.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Under54c6,000$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2605352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under54c5,567$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Over43c5,553$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.098747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Under55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over46c4,742$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,560.6853253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over45c4,719$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,595.5237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf7e…339abacked Under55c4,705$2,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,587.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.29per pick56cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under52c4,109$2,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.4219651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over46c4,100$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2142263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Under53c3,971$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.55149%25 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5248…aabbbacked Over47c3,333$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,766.491181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+55.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Over46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6203847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Under53c2,830$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Under54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5003641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over46c2,730$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35019240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35054451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over46c2,408$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300.573046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb77e…e668backed Under53c2,408$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.762941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9780…16f0backed Over48c2,342$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Under54c2,152$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1561546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…53e6backed Over47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.661145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Over46c2,100$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13459453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over45c2,016$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.81968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.994544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over48c1,903$914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.4673651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Under53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1114035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x656e…65efbacked Under55c1,818$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Under52c1,651$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.2717348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d0f…f3e6backed Over47c1,605$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.92955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Over50c1,300$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65613435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over47c1,290$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.71,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under55c1,265$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7007850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1abf…6024backed Over49c1,225$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.924045%18 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87df…0317backed Over46c1,131$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over47c1,064$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8311255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.4117251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4874…7123backed Under53c956.58$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ed…7a01backed Over47c956.58$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.99475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Under64c939.2$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008056.3%45 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed Under50c937.48$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.721963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Under55c926$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.328556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Under55c912.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed Under2c904.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.08190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Under55c900$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4921844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under48c864$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.728146.9%38 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Under54c852.35$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.275248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43226648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43213959%82 W · 57 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Under54c759.33$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.0415252%79 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd20f…f5c7backed Under54c648.15$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over50c632.08$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.6410858.3%63 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x162f…585abacked Over47c601.91$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+30.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Under54c587.98$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.262157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over54c571.65$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.968345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64ea…3d22backed Under55c558.36$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Over46c540$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.66663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over47c531.91$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.912755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over45c517.57$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Under53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.67549.3%37 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Under53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2659265.2%60 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Over46c490$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.67534.7%26 W · 49 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under57c480.48$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2751758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Under64c469.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over45c468.29$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.236124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Over49c450$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.51050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over46c434.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.7820443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over50c428.23$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.122948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8588…e929backed Over47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over46c420$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.814060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over46c420$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.817656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over46c420$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.811758.1%68 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1612039.2%47 W · 73 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over46c400$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21620555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa511…18a3backed Under55c400$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.