TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x958f…7d5a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
189
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT13464.2%86 W · 48 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 134 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.21
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$715Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$714.84
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+29.9%+$333.48
Spurs vs. 76ersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+33.3%+$158.76
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$102.2
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+75.4%+$45.73
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+42.9%+$22.28
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$508.04
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+38.9%+$155.56
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$98.85
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+88.7%+$44.34
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25.55
Celtics vs. Warriors: O/U 212.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+99.8%+$776.39
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+55.9%+$55.86
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+138.3%+$138.33
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+83.4%+$59.24
Nets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+25%+$33.15
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+81.8%+$160.66
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+42.9%+$43.4
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+58.7%+$252.77
Showing 25 of 134 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$805Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+83.1%+$668.82
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$316.26
Seahawks vs. 49ers: O/U 49.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+72.4%+$93.01
Seahawks vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Steelers vs. Brownsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$352.34
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 37.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+104.1%+$104.08
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+35.1%+$64.55
49ers vs. Coltsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+49.3%+$49.25
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+37%+$16.64
Vikings vs. Giantsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+72.4%+$181.03
Spread: Eagles (-6.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+85.2%+$85.19
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$71.41
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$135.24
Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 53.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$391.35
Cowboys vs. Lions: O/U 57.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$170.88
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$31.58
Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Bills vs. Steelers: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+72.4%+$72.41
Bills vs. Texans: O/U 44.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+92.3%+$36.92
All 21 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST150%0 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$37.15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$45
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+374.6%+$1,103.11
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$227.69
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$192.03
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+83.2%+$399.35
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$64.28
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$604.84
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$932Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$931.55
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.93
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50.85
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+33.3%+$72.04
All 12 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USC vs. TCU: O/U 56.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$65
O/U 55.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$140.11
North Texas vs. Tulane: O/U 67.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+81.8%+$199.42
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+81.8%+$20.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+28.7%+$28.14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$316.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michigan Wolverines vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 156.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.