Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028e5e9efbd37c0a824664efebe2acd50108fa35008339e1357a5565a3cb8bcb

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $490,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $117,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $490,510 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	189,999$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	3c	12,360$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.33	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	13c	9,199$1,190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,190	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	8,289$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.57	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	7,710$609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$609.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	6,429$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	10c	4,969$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,146$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	6c	3,571$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.4	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	1c	3,003$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,766$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.51	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	2c	2,692$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.72	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,507$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.83	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	12c	2,500$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.95	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Yes	10c	2,469$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	5c	2,459$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.8	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	7c	2,350$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.29	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	1c	2,240$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x107c…3ef7backed Yes	12c	2,097$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.84	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	12c	1,789$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,709$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,667$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.95	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	1,662$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	1,589$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.23	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,584$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.69	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8bd…56b6backed Yes	2c	1,565$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.44	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc13d…4bdabacked Yes	6c	1,514$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.51	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	12c	1,500$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.98	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,350$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	7c	1,350$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,327$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.25	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…c89abacked Yes	11c	1,308$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,289$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.12	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	5c	1,278$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.28	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,234$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.75	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	4c	1,200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f1…5840backed Yes	9c	1,169$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	1,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.71	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	8c	1,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	10c	999.98$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	6c	999.97$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	999.78$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.18	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	10c	991.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes	11c	896.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	11cpaid	+112%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	3c	894.68$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	891.21$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes	12c	835.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	810.66$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…cb8abacked Yes	10c	788.91$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74fc…f12bbacked Yes	13c	770.7$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes	10c	749.98$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	128	18.8%24 W · 104 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19e…adbfbacked Yes	7c	727.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.29	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	12c	700$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.47	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	699.83$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.19	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	4c	649.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.04	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	4c	645.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	610.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	7c	607.05$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	599.99$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.4	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked Yes	6c	590.35$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	5c	587.09$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.65	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	3c	580$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	9c	569.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.44	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	536.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	522.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.98	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	520.95$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.63	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	7c	518.97$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Yes	8c	501.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	11c	500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	8c	500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.32	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	10c	500$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+142.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	11c	499.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	488.71$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cb…a867backed Yes	6c	485.33$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.83	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	18cpaid	+100%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	2c	479.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	6c	476.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9610…3307backed Yes	8c	472.69$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.03	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f7d…5bd2backed Yes	9c	468.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	440$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	436.79$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a9…5ab5backed Yes	7c	417.81$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	6c	417$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4e5…25c1backed Yes	11c	414.79$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	11c	357.95$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…2f4dbacked Yes	6c	356.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	5c	353.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedff…c4adbacked Yes	3c	326.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	6c	323.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	10c	320$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	7c	303.03$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	8c	300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed Yes	11c	300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	10c	290$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event