Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a88d1da5178afaccdd64454ec1d7543e47bed3c7523b295939d013e9fa86d5

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $519,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $234,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,638 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	155,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	40,738$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.74	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	40,356$3,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,215.57	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3864…23e1backed Yes	1c	13,394$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.6	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	2c	12,101$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54fd…ae61backed Yes	11c	10,296$1,081 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,081.06	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.17per pick	23cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	7c	8,903$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.42	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	8,412$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	6,448$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.32	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	10c	5,577$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.73	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe410…8213backed Yes	0c	5,552$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes	0c	4,630$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	59	0%0 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,844$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.67	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,137$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.9	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	2,911$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.58	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,730$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	4c	2,500$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29da…c6efbacked Yes	8c	2,387$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.82	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	9c	2,255$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.69	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,246$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.06	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	1c	2,222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…eab4backed Yes	3c	2,131$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.74	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-78%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	3c	2,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	3c	1,988$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.7	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	1,883$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes	6c	1,828$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.07	70	4.3%3 W · 67 L	-6.6wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x986e…88d7backed Yes	3c	1,699$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.52	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,680$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.43	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	1,646$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.04	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf4f…6ea8backed Yes	6c	1,643$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.74	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	7c	1,500$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.5	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0c…1cd5backed Yes	10c	1,486$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	7c	1,421$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	7c	1,371$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,356$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,329$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	8c	1,289$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,242$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.36	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	8c	1,221$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	4c	1,211$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.81	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	8c	1,209$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.03	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,195$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.65	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	1,150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.45	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc361…be8ebacked Yes	1c	1,134$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fc…f12bbacked Yes	9c	1,126$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	9c	1,057$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,048$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	10c	1,046$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x533c…4883backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+58.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	6c	999.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	6c	999.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	7c	999.9$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.25	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	919.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	918.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	6c	846.91$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.78	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6e…255abacked Yes	8c	845.62$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.48	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes	9c	835.17$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	9c	834.44$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.22	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6855…7acabacked Yes	5c	770$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	761.57$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.42	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ff…721fbacked Yes	8c	700$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f80…1797backed Yes	7c	674.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	9c	674.34$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	3c	665.12$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	600$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	7c	579.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d40…5387backed Yes	9c	541.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	524.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.18	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes	9c	501.29$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.11	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8085…0243backed Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x386c…389ebacked Yes	11c	500$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17c…7352backed Yes	11c	499.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes	8c	498.93$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	443.01$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	7c	408.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	5c	408.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf680…2c59backed Yes	4c	407.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	407.12$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	5c	387.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	5c	354.02$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	353.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5792…7731backed Yes	4c	351.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Yes	10c	340$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	112	10.7%12 W · 100 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a9…5ab5backed Yes	4c	337.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	6c	326.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	8c	299.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.53	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2b…51ebbacked Yes	7c	297.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…5affbacked Yes	6c	290.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	11c	285.39$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…cfcfbacked Yes	7c	250$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	5c	228.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Yes	9c	216.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	7c	216$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc61…6eedbacked Yes	6c	208.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb631…8a87backed Yes	8c	194.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-46%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aad…ff47backed Yes	11c	188.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event